Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Minnesota United FC vs San Diego

Minnesota United FC vs San Diego prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Major League Soccer 2026-08-02 00:30
Minnesota United FC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
61%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
San Diego
Away

Prediction Summary

1
35%
X
24%
2
41%
Over 2.5
61%
BTTS Yes
63%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Minnesota United FC (Home)

Goals scored / match1.6
Goals conceded / match1.15
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate50%

San Diego (Away)

Goals scored / match2.16
Goals conceded / match1.42
Over 2.5 rate32%
BTTS rate68%

Team Form last 5 matches

Minnesota United FC
DLLDL
San Diego
WLLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

75% +0.5 84%
45% +1.5 74%
30% +2.5 32%
10% +3.5 21%
0% +4.5 5%
50% BTTS 68%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 61%. Model confidence is Medium.

Minnesota United FC averages 1.6 goals scored at home, while San Diego averages 2.16 goals scored away.

Model Strength
63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
35%
Draw
24%
Away Win
41%
Over 2.5
61%
BTTS Yes
63%

Head-to-Head last 3

Nov 2025 Minnesota United FC(A) 0 - 1 San Diego Away
Sep 2025 Minnesota United FC(A) 3 - 1 San Diego Home
Jun 2025 Minnesota United FC 2 - 4 San Diego Away

In the last 3 meetings, Minnesota United FC won 1, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Minnesota United FC — unbeaten run (home)4
Minnesota United FC — scoring streak (home)0
San Diego — winless run (away)2
San Diego — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Minnesota United FC Win (1)35%
Draw (X)24%
San Diego Win (2)41%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

75% +0.5 84%
45% +1.5 74%
30% +2.5 32%
10% +3.5 21%
0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

25% -0.5 16%
55% -1.5 26%
70% -2.5 68%
90% -3.5 79%
100% -4.5 95%

Minnesota United FC vs San Diego — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Minnesota United FC — scored (home)1.6
Minnesota United FC — conceded (home)1.15
San Diego — scored (away)2.16
San Diego — conceded (away)1.42
Model expected combined goals3.17

Both Teams To Score

Yes63%
No37%

Rate per Team

Minnesota United FC — BTTS matches (home)50%
San Diego — BTTS matches (away)68%
Combined (simple average)59%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Minnesota United FC (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against4.7

San Diego (away)

Corners for4.2
Corners against4.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Minnesota United FC
5 9 6 6 7
San Diego
12 6 6 8 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Minnesota United FC (home)

For2.2

San Diego (away)

For1.9

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.575%
Under 19.525%
Over 22.561%
Under 22.539%
Over 25.545%
Under 25.555%
Expected total shots25.24

Minnesota United FC

Shots Over 9.582%
Shots Over 11.567%
Shots Over 13.552%
Expected shots14.14
On Target Over 3.572%
On Target Over 4.556%
On Target Over 5.540%
Expected on target5.09

San Diego

Shots Over 9.561%
Shots Over 11.543%
Shots Over 13.527%
Expected shots11.10
On Target Over 3.560%
On Target Over 4.542%
On Target Over 5.527%
Expected on target4.27

Shots per Game

Minnesota United FC — total shots (home)12.8
San Diego — total shots (away)11.2

Shots on Target

Minnesota United FC — on target (home)5.3
San Diego — on target (away)4.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Minnesota United FC

Inside the box8.18
Outside the box3.63

San Diego

Inside the box8.08
Outside the box4.85

Player Shots Minnesota United FC

T. Oluwaseyi
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target29%
H. Dotson
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target8%
+1.5 On Target8%
W. Trapp
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target5%
+1.5 On Target3%
K. Yeboah
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target24%
J. Pereyra
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target16%

Player Shots San Diego

A. Pellegrino
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target25%
M. Iloski
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target36%
A. Dreyer
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target85%
+1.5 On Target41%
O. Valakari
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target10%
M. Ingvartsen
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Minnesota United FC xG (home)1.34
San Diego xG (away)1.6

Average Possession

38.84% Possession 61.54%

Team Comparison Minnesota United FC vs San Diego

77.48% Pass accuracy 87.43%
342.71 Passes per match 609.41
-0.12 Goals prevented 0.08
13.26 Fouls committed 12.69
3.47 Goalkeeper saves 3
1.76 Offsides 2.11
15.71 Tackles per match 15.13

League average xG this season is 1.48 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Minnesota United FC vs San Diego prediction and preview

Preview Minnesota United FC vs San Diego with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.

1X2 Over/Under 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Major League Soccer
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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