Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Monaco vs FK Crvena Zvezda

Monaco vs FK Crvena Zvezda prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Champions League 2024-10-22 16:45
Monaco
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
64%
Confidence
Medium
Score
2-0
FK Crvena Zvezda
Away

Prediction Summary

1
67%
X
18%
2
15%
Over 2.5
64%
BTTS Yes
57%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Monaco (Home)

Goals scored / match2
Goals conceded / match1.2
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate60%

FK Crvena Zvezda (Away)

Goals scored / match0.8
Goals conceded / match2.6
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate60%

Team Form last 5 matches

Monaco
DLLWL
FK Crvena Zvezda
WLLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

80% +0.5 80%
60% +1.5 0%
20% +2.5 0%
20% +3.5 0%
20% +4.5 0%
60% BTTS 60%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 64%. Model confidence is Medium.

Monaco averages 2 goals scored at home, while FK Crvena Zvezda averages 0.8 goals scored away.

Model Strength
67%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
67%
Draw
18%
Away Win
15%
Over 2.5
64%
BTTS Yes
57%

Head-to-Head last 3

Oct 2024 Monaco 5 - 1 FK Crvena Zvezda Home
Nov 2022 Monaco 4 - 1 FK Crvena Zvezda Home
Sep 2022 Monaco(A) 1 - 0 FK Crvena Zvezda Home

In the last 3 meetings, Monaco won 3, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Monaco — unbeaten run (home)0
Monaco — scoring streak (home)0
FK Crvena Zvezda — winless run (away)0
FK Crvena Zvezda — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Monaco Win (1)67%
Draw (X)18%
FK Crvena Zvezda Win (2)15%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

80% +0.5 80%
60% +1.5 0%
20% +2.5 0%
20% +3.5 0%
20% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

20% -0.5 20%
40% -1.5 100%
80% -2.5 100%
80% -3.5 100%
80% -4.5 100%

Monaco vs FK Crvena Zvezda — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Monaco — scored (home)2
Monaco — conceded (home)1.2
FK Crvena Zvezda — scored (away)0.8
FK Crvena Zvezda — conceded (away)2.6
Model expected combined goals3.3

Both Teams To Score

Yes57%
No43%

Rate per Team

Monaco — BTTS matches (home)60%
FK Crvena Zvezda — BTTS matches (away)60%
Combined (simple average)60%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.590%
Under 4.510%
Over 5.590%
Under 5.510%
Over 6.590%
Under 6.510%
Over 7.590%
Under 7.510%
Over 8.590%
Under 8.510%
Over 9.580%
Under 9.520%
Over 10.560%
Under 10.540%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Monaco (home)

Corners for5.6
Corners against5.2

FK Crvena Zvezda (away)

Corners for4.6
Corners against6.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Monaco
4 11 3 9 5
FK Crvena Zvezda
8 8 10 14 14

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Monaco (home)

For3.0

FK Crvena Zvezda (away)

For1.4

Shots per Game

Monaco — total shots (home)14.8
FK Crvena Zvezda — total shots (away)10.8

Shots on Target

Monaco — on target (home)5.6
FK Crvena Zvezda — on target (away)2.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Monaco

Inside the box8.2
Outside the box3.7

FK Crvena Zvezda

Inside the box8
Outside the box4.3

Player Shots Monaco

B. Embolo
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
T. Minamino
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target22%
E. Ben Seghir
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target10%
M. Akliouche
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target10%
K. Diatta
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots FK Crvena Zvezda

C. Ndiaye
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%
M. Ivanić
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
N. Radonjić
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target25%
S. Katompa Mvumpa
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
T. Elšnik
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Monaco xG (home)1.31
FK Crvena Zvezda xG (away)1.16

Average Possession

51.2% Possession 43.2%

Team Comparison Monaco vs FK Crvena Zvezda

80.4% Pass accuracy 80.3%
438.9 Passes per match 372.2
-0.17 Goals prevented -0.41
11.9 Fouls committed 10.2
3.2 Goalkeeper saves 2.8
2.8 Offsides 2.4
16.8 Tackles per match 16.6

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Monaco vs FK Crvena Zvezda prediction analysis

Review Monaco vs FK Crvena Zvezda with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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