Prediction Analysis: Monaco vs Lens
Monaco vs Lens prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Ligue 1
2026-09-19
15:00
Monaco
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
62%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Lens
Away
Prediction Summary
1
39%
X
23%
2
38%
+2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS
64%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Monaco (Home)
Goals scored / match1.94
Goals conceded / match1.35
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate59%
Lens (Away)
Goals scored / match1.82
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate59%
Team Form last 5 matches
Monaco
LLWDD
Lens
WLWDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
88%
+0.5
76%
59%
+1.5
53%
29%
+2.5
29%
12%
+3.5
18%
6%
+4.5
6%
59%
BTTS
59%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 62%. Model confidence is Medium.
Monaco averages 1.94 goals scored at home, while Lens averages 1.82 goals scored away.
Model Strength
64%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
39%
Draw
23%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
62%
BTTS Yes
64%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
Monaco(A)
3 - 2
Lens
Home
Nov 2025
Monaco
1 - 4
Lens
Away
May 2025
Monaco(A)
0 - 4
Lens
Away
Sep 2024
Monaco
1 - 1
Lens
Draw
Feb 2024
Monaco(A)
3 - 2
Lens
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Monaco won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Monaco — unbeaten run (home)0
Monaco — scoring streak (home)0
Lens — winless run (away)0
Lens — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Monaco Win (1)39%
Draw (X)23%
Lens Win (2)38%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
88%
+0.5
76%
59%
+1.5
53%
29%
+2.5
29%
12%
+3.5
18%
6%
+4.5
6%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
12%
-0.5
24%
41%
-1.5
47%
71%
-2.5
71%
88%
-3.5
82%
94%
-4.5
94%
Monaco vs Lens — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Monaco — scored (home)1.94
Monaco — conceded (home)1.35
Lens — scored (away)1.82
Lens — conceded (away)1.29
Model expected combined goals3.21
Both Teams To Score
Yes64%
No36%
Rate per Team
Monaco — BTTS matches (home)59%
Lens — BTTS matches (away)59%
Combined (simple average)59%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Monaco (home)
Corners for4.9
Corners against4.1
Lens (away)
Corners for5.6
Corners against4.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Monaco
14
6
14
7
10
Lens
6
15
11
9
28
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Monaco (home)
For1.8
Lens (away)
For2.5
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.571%
Under 19.529%
Over 22.558%
Under 22.542%
Over 25.544%
Under 25.556%
Expected total shots25.05
Monaco
Shots Over 9.573%
Shots Over 11.557%
Shots Over 13.542%
Expected shots12.97
On Target Over 3.567%
On Target Over 4.551%
On Target Over 5.536%
Expected on target4.85
Lens
Shots Over 9.567%
Shots Over 11.551%
Shots Over 13.535%
Expected shots12.09
On Target Over 3.558%
On Target Over 4.542%
On Target Over 5.528%
Expected on target4.28
Shots per Game
Monaco — total shots (home)12.1
Lens — total shots (away)14.6
Shots on Target
Monaco — on target (home)4.5
Lens — on target (away)4.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Monaco
Inside the box9.18
Outside the box3.35
Lens
Inside the box11.47
Outside the box4.97
Player Shots Monaco
F. Balogun
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target27%
Ansu Fati
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target28%
A. Golovin
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target16%
M. Akliouche
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target10%
P. Cabral
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots Lens
O. Édouard
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target34%
W. Saïd
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target31%
F. Thauvin
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target21%
M. Udol
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target9%
M. Sangaré
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Monaco xG (home)1.7
Lens xG (away)1.99
Average Possession
53.79%
Possession
51.12%
Team Comparison Monaco vs Lens
83.32%
Pass accuracy
84.24%
480.44
Passes per match
463.53
-0.11
Goals prevented
0.17
12.97
Fouls committed
12.71
2.76
Goalkeeper saves
2.48
2.43
Offsides
2.23
17.53
Tackles per match
18.74
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Monaco vs Lens prediction analysis
Review Monaco vs Lens with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights