Prediction Analysis: Monaco vs Marseille
Monaco vs Marseille prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Ligue 1
2026-08-29
15:00
Monaco
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
58%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Marseille
Away
Prediction Summary
1
46%
X
24%
2
30%
+2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS
60%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Monaco (Home)
Goals scored / match1.94
Goals conceded / match1.35
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate59%
Marseille (Away)
Goals scored / match1.29
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate35%
Team Form last 5 matches
Monaco
LLWDD
Marseille
WWLDL
Goals Comparison rate per team
88%
+0.5
59%
59%
+1.5
29%
29%
+2.5
18%
12%
+3.5
12%
6%
+4.5
12%
59%
BTTS
35%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.
Monaco averages 1.94 goals scored at home, while Marseille averages 1.29 goals scored away.
Model Strength
60%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
46%
Draw
24%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Monaco
2 - 1
Marseille
Home
Dec 2025
Monaco(A)
0 - 1
Marseille
Away
Apr 2025
Monaco
3 - 0
Marseille
Home
Dec 2024
Monaco(A)
1 - 2
Marseille
Away
Jan 2024
Monaco(A)
2 - 2
Marseille
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Monaco won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Monaco — unbeaten run (home)0
Monaco — scoring streak (home)0
Marseille — winless run (away)0
Marseille — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Monaco Win (1)46%
Draw (X)24%
Marseille Win (2)30%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
88%
+0.5
59%
59%
+1.5
29%
29%
+2.5
18%
12%
+3.5
12%
6%
+4.5
12%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
12%
-0.5
41%
41%
-1.5
71%
71%
-2.5
82%
88%
-3.5
88%
94%
-4.5
88%
Monaco vs Marseille — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Monaco — scored (home)1.94
Monaco — conceded (home)1.35
Marseille — scored (away)1.29
Marseille — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals3.03
Both Teams To Score
Yes60%
No40%
Rate per Team
Monaco — BTTS matches (home)59%
Marseille — BTTS matches (away)35%
Combined (simple average)47%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Monaco (home)
Corners for4.9
Corners against4.1
Marseille (away)
Corners for4.8
Corners against4.1
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Monaco
14
6
14
7
10
Marseille
8
8
15
3
15
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4
Yellow Cards per Team
Monaco (home)
For1.8
Marseille (away)
For2.7
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.570%
Under 19.530%
Over 22.556%
Under 22.544%
Over 25.542%
Under 25.558%
Expected total shots24.66
Monaco
Shots Over 9.570%
Shots Over 11.554%
Shots Over 13.539%
Expected shots12.56
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.549%
On Target Over 5.534%
Expected on target4.71
Marseille
Shots Over 9.567%
Shots Over 11.551%
Shots Over 13.535%
Expected shots12.10
On Target Over 3.561%
On Target Over 4.545%
On Target Over 5.530%
Expected on target4.47
Shots per Game
Monaco — total shots (home)12.1
Marseille — total shots (away)14.4
Shots on Target
Monaco — on target (home)4.5
Marseille — on target (away)5.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Monaco
Inside the box9.18
Outside the box3.35
Marseille
Inside the box9.62
Outside the box5.47
Player Shots Monaco
F. Balogun
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target27%
Ansu Fati
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target28%
A. Golovin
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target16%
M. Akliouche
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target10%
P. Cabral
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots Marseille
M. Greenwood
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target41%
P. Aubameyang
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target30%
A. Gouiri
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target14%
Igor Paixão
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target13%
H. Traorè
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Monaco xG (home)1.7
Marseille xG (away)1.81
Average Possession
53.79%
Possession
56.94%
Team Comparison Monaco vs Marseille
83.32%
Pass accuracy
87.15%
480.44
Passes per match
540.71
-0.11
Goals prevented
-0.27
12.97
Fouls committed
12.71
2.76
Goalkeeper saves
2.62
2.43
Offsides
1.24
17.53
Tackles per match
14.91
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Monaco vs Marseille prediction analysis
Review Monaco vs Marseille with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights