Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Monterrey vs FC Juarez

Monterrey vs FC Juarez prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Liga MX 2026-08-16 01:00
Monterrey
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
59%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
FC Juarez
Away

Prediction Summary

1
52%
X
23%
2
25%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Monterrey (Home)

Goals scored / match1.85
Goals conceded / match1.25
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate60%

FC Juarez (Away)

Goals scored / match1.2
Goals conceded / match1.85
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate80%

Team Form last 5 matches

Monterrey
WLWLD
FC Juarez
LLWLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

90% +0.5 80%
55% +1.5 40%
30% +2.5 0%
10% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
60% BTTS 80%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 59%. Model confidence is Medium.

Monterrey averages 1.85 goals scored at home, while FC Juarez averages 1.2 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
52%
Draw
23%
Away Win
25%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS Yes
60%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Monterrey(A) 2 - 2 FC Juarez Draw
Oct 2025 Monterrey 4 - 2 FC Juarez Home
Feb 2025 Monterrey(A) 1 - 2 FC Juarez Away
Sep 2024 Monterrey 3 - 2 FC Juarez Home
Feb 2024 Monterrey(A) 3 - 0 FC Juarez Home

In the last 5 meetings, Monterrey won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Monterrey — unbeaten run (home)2
Monterrey — scoring streak (home)6
FC Juarez — winless run (away)6
FC Juarez — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Monterrey Win (1)52%
Draw (X)23%
FC Juarez Win (2)25%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

90% +0.5 80%
55% +1.5 40%
30% +2.5 0%
10% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

10% -0.5 20%
45% -1.5 60%
70% -2.5 100%
90% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Monterrey vs FC Juarez — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Monterrey — scored (home)1.85
Monterrey — conceded (home)1.25
FC Juarez — scored (away)1.2
FC Juarez — conceded (away)1.85
Model expected combined goals3.08

Both Teams To Score

Yes60%
No40%

Rate per Team

Monterrey — BTTS matches (home)60%
FC Juarez — BTTS matches (away)80%
Combined (simple average)70%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Monterrey (home)

Corners for4.9
Corners against4.9

FC Juarez (away)

Corners for4.2
Corners against5.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Monterrey
10 11 7 9 9
FC Juarez
11 6 8 9 21

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.578%
Under 2.522%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Monterrey (home)

For1.7

FC Juarez (away)

For2.5

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.577%
Under 19.523%
Over 22.564%
Under 22.536%
Over 25.551%
Under 25.549%
Expected total shots26.61

Monterrey

Shots Over 9.585%
Shots Over 11.573%
Shots Over 13.560%
Expected shots15.56
On Target Over 3.574%
On Target Over 4.559%
On Target Over 5.544%
Expected on target5.42

FC Juarez

Shots Over 9.560%
Shots Over 11.542%
Shots Over 13.527%
Expected shots11.06
On Target Over 3.550%
On Target Over 4.533%
On Target Over 5.520%
Expected on target3.75

Shots per Game

Monterrey — total shots (home)15.3
FC Juarez — total shots (away)11.3

Shots on Target

Monterrey — on target (home)5.7
FC Juarez — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Monterrey

Inside the box8.18
Outside the box6.03

FC Juarez

Inside the box7.32
Outside the box5.03

Player Shots Monterrey

U. Đurđević
Shots on Target/Game2.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target25%
A. Martial
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target6%
L. Orellano
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target40%
Sergio Canales
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target29%
G. Berterame
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target42%

Player Shots FC Juarez

Madson
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target12%
D. Valoyes
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
D. Villalpando
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target8%
Ó. Estupiñán
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target18%
R. Pizarro
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Monterrey xG (home)1.29
FC Juarez xG (away)1.29

Average Possession

55.82% Possession 48.21%

Team Comparison Monterrey vs FC Juarez

86.09% Pass accuracy 81.48%
482.58 Passes per match 367.05
-0.03 Goals prevented -0.25
11.97 Fouls committed 12.76
2.82 Goalkeeper saves 2.74
1.35 Offsides 1.24
14.38 Tackles per match 13.79

League average xG this season is 1.32 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Monterrey vs FC Juarez prediction and preview

Preview Monterrey vs FC Juarez with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.

1X2 Over/Under 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Liga MX
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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