Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Montpellier vs Reims

Montpellier vs Reims prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2025-04-27 15:15
Montpellier
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
57%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Reims
Away

Prediction Summary

1
26%
X
23%
2
50%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Montpellier (Home)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match2.41
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate59%

Reims (Away)

Goals scored / match0.94
Goals conceded / match1.28
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate44%

Team Form last 5 matches

Montpellier
LLLDL
Reims
LDLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

59% +0.5 56%
29% +1.5 28%
12% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
59% BTTS 44%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.

Montpellier averages 1 goals scored at home, while Reims averages 0.94 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
26%
Draw
23%
Away Win
50%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
58%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Montpellier 0 - 0 Reims Draw
Nov 2025 Montpellier(A) 0 - 2 Reims Away
Apr 2025 Montpellier 0 - 0 Reims Draw
Oct 2024 Montpellier(A) 2 - 4 Reims Away
Apr 2024 Montpellier(A) 2 - 1 Reims Home

In the last 5 meetings, Montpellier won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Montpellier — unbeaten run (home)0
Montpellier — scoring streak (home)1
Reims — winless run (away)4
Reims — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Montpellier Win (1)26%
Draw (X)23%
Reims Win (2)50%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

59% +0.5 56%
29% +1.5 28%
12% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

41% -0.5 44%
71% -1.5 72%
88% -2.5 89%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Montpellier vs Reims — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Montpellier — scored (home)1
Montpellier — conceded (home)2.41
Reims — scored (away)0.94
Reims — conceded (away)1.28
Model expected combined goals2.98

Both Teams To Score

Yes58%
No42%

Rate per Team

Montpellier — BTTS matches (home)59%
Reims — BTTS matches (away)44%
Combined (simple average)51.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.586%
Under 6.514%
Over 7.583%
Under 7.517%
Over 8.577%
Under 8.523%
Over 9.558%
Under 9.542%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Montpellier (home)

Corners for5.4
Corners against4.7

Reims (away)

Corners for4.4
Corners against6.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Montpellier
9 10 10 9 9
Reims
8 9 13 12 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.583%
Under 2.517%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Montpellier (home)

For2.5

Reims (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Montpellier — total shots (home)12.3
Reims — total shots (away)11.1

Shots on Target

Montpellier — on target (home)4.4
Reims — on target (away)3.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Montpellier

Inside the box6.24
Outside the box4.79

Reims

Inside the box7.61
Outside the box4.14

Player Shots Montpellier

A. Delort
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target22%
A. Adams
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target20%
O. Maamma
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target8%
A. Nordin
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target25%
T. Savanier
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target16%

Player Shots Reims

A. Tia
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%
E. Agbadou
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target7%
V. Atangana Edoa
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target11%
+1.5 On Target6%
Keito Nakamura
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target24%
M. Munetsi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Montpellier xG (home)1.02
Reims xG (away)1.11

Average Possession

44.97% Possession 43.69%

Team Comparison Montpellier vs Reims

80.53% Pass accuracy 80.39%
388.79 Passes per match 388.28
-0.1 Goals prevented 0.31
12.56 Fouls committed 11.75
3.5 Goalkeeper saves 3.83
2.1 Offsides 1.74
19 Tackles per match 16.58

League average xG this season is 1.51 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Montpellier vs Reims prediction analysis

Review Montpellier vs Reims with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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