What markets are included in the Moreirense vs Estrela prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Moreirense vs Estrela prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Moreirense vs Estrela

Moreirense vs Estrela prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-03-02 15:30

Moreirense

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

37%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Estrela

Away

Prediction Summary

52%

27%

21%

Under 2.5

63%

BTTS No

59%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Moreirense (Home)

Goals scored / match1.29

Goals conceded / match1.24

Over 2.5 rate18%

BTTS rate65%

Estrela (Away)

Goals scored / match0.35

Goals conceded / match1.53

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate24%

Team Form last 5 matches

Moreirense

WDLDL

Estrela

LLLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

76% +0.5 35%

35% +1.5 0%

18% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

65% BTTS 24%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 37%. Model confidence is Medium.

Moreirense averages 1.29 goals scored at home, while Estrela averages 0.35 goals scored away.

Model Strength

63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

52%

Draw

27%

Away Win

21%

Over 2.5

37%

BTTS Yes

41%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Moreirense 3 - 2 Estrela Home

Dec 2025 Moreirense(A) 0 - 0 Estrela Draw

Mar 2025 Moreirense 1 - 1 Estrela Draw

Sep 2024 Moreirense(A) 1 - 2 Estrela Away

Apr 2024 Moreirense 2 - 2 Estrela Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Moreirense won 1, drew 3 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Moreirense — unbeaten run (home)2

Moreirense — scoring streak (home)2

Estrela — winless run (away)3

Estrela — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Moreirense Win (1)52%

Draw (X)27%

Estrela Win (2)21%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

76% +0.5 35%

35% +1.5 0%

18% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

24% -0.5 65%

65% -1.5 100%

82% -2.5 100%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Moreirense vs Estrela — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Moreirense — scored (home)1.29

Moreirense — conceded (home)1.24

Estrela — scored (away)0.35

Estrela — conceded (away)1.53

Model expected combined goals2.18

Both Teams To Score

Yes41%

No59%

Rate per Team

Moreirense — BTTS matches (home)65%

Estrela — BTTS matches (away)24%

Combined (simple average)44.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.588%

Under 5.512%

Over 6.585%

Under 6.515%

Over 7.571%

Under 7.529%

Over 8.553%

Under 8.547%

Over 9.539%

Under 9.561%

Over 10.530%

Under 10.570%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Moreirense (home)

Corners for3.1

Corners against4.9

Estrela (away)

Corners for3.9

Corners against6.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Moreirense

6 7 11 9 6

Estrela

8 16 8 7 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.597%

Under 1.53%

Over 2.597%

Under 2.53%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Moreirense (home)

For2.5

Estrela (away)

For3.1

Shots per Game

Moreirense — total shots (home)10.5

Estrela — total shots (away)9.2

Shots on Target

Moreirense — on target (home)3.8

Estrela — on target (away)2.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Moreirense

Inside the box5.76

Outside the box4.47

Estrela

Inside the box5.41

Outside the box4.32

Player Shots Moreirense

Dinis Pinto

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target15%

+1.5 On Target7%

Madson

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target47%

+1.5 On Target21%

Guilherme Schettine

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target17%

Luís Asué

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target16%

Alan

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Estrela

Igor Jesus

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target8%

+1.5 On Target8%

Nilton Varela

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target4%

+1.5 On Target4%

André Luiz

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target18%

Kikas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target13%

Chico Banza

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target23%

+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Moreirense xG (home)0.92

Estrela xG (away)0.8

Average Possession

47.47% Possession 44.62%

Team Comparison Moreirense vs Estrela

79.97% Pass accuracy 74.65%

384.35 Passes per match 325.97

-0.27 Goals prevented -0.13

14.59 Fouls committed 15.32

2.59 Goalkeeper saves 3.09

1.75 Offsides 2.09

16.35 Tackles per match 18

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Moreirense vs Estrela prediction analysis

Review Moreirense vs Estrela with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights