What markets are included in the Moreirense vs Guimaraes prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Moreirense vs Guimaraes prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Moreirense vs Guimaraes

Moreirense vs Guimaraes prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-08-23 15:00

Moreirense

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

46%

Confidence

Low

Score

1-0

Guimaraes

Away

Prediction Summary

50%

26%

25%

Under 2.5

54%

BTTS · No edge

50%

Confidence

Low

Market Evidence

Moreirense (Home)

Goals scored / match1.18

Goals conceded / match1.24

Over 2.5 rate12%

BTTS rate47%

Guimaraes (Away)

Goals scored / match0.76

Goals conceded / match1.88

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate29%

Team Form last 5 matches

Moreirense

DLWLW

Guimaraes

LLLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 53%

35% +1.5 24%

12% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 29%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

Moreirense averages 1.18 goals scored at home, while Guimaraes averages 0.76 goals scored away.

Model Strength

54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

50%

Draw

26%

Away Win

25%

Over 2.5

46%

BTTS Yes

50%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Moreirense(A) 0 - 1 Guimaraes Away

Aug 2025 Moreirense 2 - 0 Guimaraes Home

Mar 2025 Moreirense 2 - 2 Guimaraes Draw

Nov 2024 Moreirense(A) 0 - 1 Guimaraes Away

Mar 2024 Moreirense(A) 0 - 1 Guimaraes Away

In the last 5 meetings, Moreirense won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Moreirense — unbeaten run (home)3

Moreirense — scoring streak (home)0

Guimaraes — winless run (away)2

Guimaraes — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Moreirense Win (1)50%

Draw (X)26%

Guimaraes Win (2)25%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 53%

35% +1.5 24%

12% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 47%

65% -1.5 76%

88% -2.5 100%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Moreirense vs Guimaraes — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Moreirense — scored (home)1.18

Moreirense — conceded (home)1.24

Guimaraes — scored (away)0.76

Guimaraes — conceded (away)1.88

Model expected combined goals2.53

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%

No50%

Rate per Team

Moreirense — BTTS matches (home)47%

Guimaraes — BTTS matches (away)29%

Combined (simple average)38%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.588%

Under 5.512%

Over 6.574%

Under 6.526%

Over 7.568%

Under 7.532%

Over 8.553%

Under 8.547%

Over 9.535%

Under 9.565%

Over 10.521%

Under 10.579%

Expected total corners (blended average)8.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Moreirense (home)

Corners for4.0

Corners against5.1

Guimaraes (away)

Corners for4.5

Corners against3.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Moreirense

6 11 5 9 8

Guimaraes

13 8 8 10 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.594%

Under 1.56%

Over 2.577%

Under 2.523%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Moreirense (home)

For2.4

Guimaraes (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Moreirense — total shots (home)9.4

Guimaraes — total shots (away)13.2

Shots on Target

Moreirense — on target (home)3.1

Guimaraes — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Moreirense

Inside the box5.26

Outside the box3.65

Guimaraes

Inside the box7.38

Outside the box5.94

Player Shots Moreirense

Guilherme Schettine

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target40%

Bernardo Martins

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target14%

Alan

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target15%

N. John

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target7%

Diogo Travassos

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target34%

+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Guimaraes

Gustavo

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target22%

Samu

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target10%

Tiago Silva

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

Nélson Oliveira

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target8%

A. Ndoye

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Moreirense xG (home)0.93

Guimaraes xG (away)1.2

Average Possession

49.56% Possession 51.38%

Team Comparison Moreirense vs Guimaraes

82.47% Pass accuracy 81.71%

430.18 Passes per match 393.65

-0.01 Goals prevented -0.11

13.94 Fouls committed 14.53

3.09 Goalkeeper saves 3.12

1.23 Offsides 1.94

14.21 Tackles per match 15.35

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Moreirense vs Guimaraes prediction analysis

Review Moreirense vs Guimaraes with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights