Prediction Analysis: Motherwell vs Aberdeen
Motherwell vs Aberdeen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premiership
2026-08-22
14:00
Motherwell
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
42%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Aberdeen
Away
Prediction Summary
1
62%
X
24%
2
14%
Under 2.5
58%
BTTS No
61%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Motherwell (Home)
Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match0.68
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate37%
Aberdeen (Away)
Goals scored / match0.63
Goals conceded / match1.68
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate26%
Team Form last 5 matches
Motherwell
WLDLW
Aberdeen
LLWDW
Goals Comparison rate per team
89%
+0.5
42%
63%
+1.5
16%
11%
+2.5
5%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
37%
BTTS
26%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 42%. Model confidence is Medium.
Motherwell averages 1.68 goals scored at home, while Aberdeen averages 0.63 goals scored away.
Model Strength
62%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
62%
Draw
24%
Away Win
14%
Over 2.5
42%
BTTS Yes
39%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
Motherwell(A)
0 - 2
Aberdeen
Away
Feb 2026
Motherwell
2 - 0
Aberdeen
Home
Nov 2025
Motherwell(A)
1 - 1
Aberdeen
Draw
Sep 2025
Motherwell
2 - 0
Aberdeen
Home
Sep 2025
Motherwell(A)
1 - 0
Aberdeen
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Motherwell won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Motherwell — unbeaten run (home)0
Motherwell — scoring streak (home)3
Aberdeen — winless run (away)12
Aberdeen — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Motherwell Win (1)62%
Draw (X)24%
Aberdeen Win (2)14%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
89%
+0.5
42%
63%
+1.5
16%
11%
+2.5
5%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
11%
-0.5
58%
37%
-1.5
84%
89%
-2.5
95%
95%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Motherwell vs Aberdeen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Motherwell — scored (home)1.68
Motherwell — conceded (home)0.68
Aberdeen — scored (away)0.63
Aberdeen — conceded (away)1.68
Model expected combined goals2.34
Both Teams To Score
Yes39%
No61%
Rate per Team
Motherwell — BTTS matches (home)37%
Aberdeen — BTTS matches (away)26%
Combined (simple average)31.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.552%
Under 9.548%
Over 10.541%
Under 10.559%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.00
Per-Team Corners own matches
Motherwell (home)
Corners for3.8
Corners against3.7
Aberdeen (away)
Corners for3.6
Corners against5.8
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Motherwell
12
7
8
7
11
Aberdeen
11
9
6
7
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4
Yellow Cards per Team
Motherwell (home)
For1.2
Aberdeen (away)
For2.9
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.570%
Under 19.530%
Over 22.557%
Under 22.543%
Over 25.543%
Under 25.557%
Expected total shots24.91
Motherwell
Shots Over 9.581%
Shots Over 11.568%
Shots Over 13.554%
Expected shots14.75
On Target Over 3.571%
On Target Over 4.556%
On Target Over 5.541%
Expected on target5.20
Aberdeen
Shots Over 9.552%
Shots Over 11.535%
Shots Over 13.521%
Expected shots10.17
On Target Over 3.536%
On Target Over 4.521%
On Target Over 5.511%
Expected on target3.04
Shots per Game
Motherwell — total shots (home)14.1
Aberdeen — total shots (away)10.1
Shots on Target
Motherwell — on target (home)5.5
Aberdeen — on target (away)2.4
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Motherwell
Inside the box8.5
Outside the box4.68
Aberdeen
Inside the box7.42
Outside the box3.87
Player Shots Motherwell
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target37%
C. Slattery
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target13%
E. Just
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target20%
A. Stamatelopoulos
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target21%
C. Hendry
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target19%
Player Shots Aberdeen
J. Karlsson
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target22%
A. Aouchiche
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target10%
K. Nisbet
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target17%
D. Polvara
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target6%
S. Armstrong
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target4%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Motherwell xG (home)1.41
Aberdeen xG (away)1.06
Average Possession
57.89%
Possession
48.05%
Team Comparison Motherwell vs Aberdeen
84.5%
Pass accuracy
76.18%
533
Passes per match
392.42
-0.06
Goals prevented
-0.41
11.66
Fouls committed
14.29
2.63
Goalkeeper saves
3.18
2.24
Offsides
1.81
14.55
Tackles per match
15.63
League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Motherwell vs Aberdeen prediction and preview
Preview Motherwell vs Aberdeen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premiership
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights