Prediction Analysis: MVV vs Jong Utrecht
MVV vs Jong Utrecht prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Eerste Divisie
2026-08-09
14:45
MVV
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
59%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Jong Utrecht
Away
Prediction Summary
1
37%
X
25%
2
38%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
59%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
MVV (Home)
Goals scored / match1.37
Goals conceded / match1.84
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate63%
Jong Utrecht (Away)
Goals scored / match1.11
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
MVV
LDDLL
Jong Utrecht
WDWLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
68%
+0.5
63%
47%
+1.5
32%
21%
+2.5
11%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
63%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 59%. Model confidence is Medium.
MVV averages 1.37 goals scored at home, while Jong Utrecht averages 1.11 goals scored away.
Model Strength
59%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
37%
Draw
25%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
59%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jan 2026
MVV
2 - 2
Jong Utrecht
Draw
Oct 2025
MVV(A)
1 - 3
Jong Utrecht
Away
Apr 2025
MVV
5 - 0
Jong Utrecht
Home
Nov 2024
MVV(A)
3 - 4
Jong Utrecht
Away
Jan 2024
MVV
3 - 0
Jong Utrecht
Home
In the last 5 meetings, MVV won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
MVV — unbeaten run (home)0
MVV — scoring streak (home)0
Jong Utrecht — winless run (away)0
Jong Utrecht — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
MVV Win (1)37%
Draw (X)25%
Jong Utrecht Win (2)38%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
68%
+0.5
63%
47%
+1.5
32%
21%
+2.5
11%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
32%
-0.5
37%
53%
-1.5
68%
79%
-2.5
89%
100%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
100%
MVV vs Jong Utrecht — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
MVV — scored (home)1.37
MVV — conceded (home)1.84
Jong Utrecht — scored (away)1.11
Jong Utrecht — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals2.92
Both Teams To Score
Yes59%
No41%
Rate per Team
MVV — BTTS matches (home)63%
Jong Utrecht — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)58%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.567%
Under 8.533%
Over 9.557%
Under 9.543%
Over 10.546%
Under 10.554%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
MVV (home)
Corners for4.4
Corners against5.5
Jong Utrecht (away)
Corners for4.5
Corners against5.1
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
MVV
15
12
8
10
11
Jong Utrecht
10
9
14
15
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)2.9
Yellow Cards per Team
MVV (home)
For1.6
Jong Utrecht (away)
For1.6
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.582%
Under 19.518%
Over 22.570%
Under 22.530%
Over 25.556%
Under 25.544%
Expected total shots27.60
MVV
Shots Over 9.581%
Shots Over 11.566%
Shots Over 13.551%
Expected shots14.09
On Target Over 3.572%
On Target Over 4.556%
On Target Over 5.541%
Expected on target5.14
Jong Utrecht
Shots Over 9.578%
Shots Over 11.562%
Shots Over 13.546%
Expected shots13.50
On Target Over 3.567%
On Target Over 4.550%
On Target Over 5.535%
Expected on target4.79
Shots per Game
MVV — total shots (home)12.2
Jong Utrecht — total shots (away)12.8
Shots on Target
MVV — on target (home)3.2
Jong Utrecht — on target (away)4.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
MVV
Inside the box6.84
Outside the box4.34
Jong Utrecht
Inside the box8.89
Outside the box5.11
Player Shots MVV
M. Kuipers
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target13%
N. El Basri
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target11%
Camil Mmaee
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
S. Van Dessel
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target8%
S. Braken
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target21%
Player Shots Jong Utrecht
N. Ohio
Shots on Target/Game2.1
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target63%
R. El Arguioui
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target74%
+1.5 On Target44%
Tijn den Boggende
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target15%
O. Agougil
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target14%
N. Dundas
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target12%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
MVV xG (home)1.13
Jong Utrecht xG (away)1.97
Average Possession
43.68%
Possession
47.61%
Team Comparison MVV vs Jong Utrecht
78.02%
Pass accuracy
77.68%
373.63
Passes per match
393.11
0
Goals prevented
0
12.05
Fouls committed
12.26
4.08
Goalkeeper saves
3.45
1.91
Offsides
2.3
18.34
Tackles per match
15.29
League average xG this season is 1.67 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
MVV vs Jong Utrecht prediction analysis
Review MVV vs Jong Utrecht with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eerste Divisie.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Eerste Divisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights