Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven

NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eredivisie 2025-11-22 15:30
NAC Breda
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
69%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-2
PSV Eindhoven
Away

Prediction Summary

1
19%
X
19%
2
62%
Over 2.5
69%
BTTS Yes
64%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

NAC Breda (Home)

Goals scored / match1.18
Goals conceded / match1.35
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate47%

PSV Eindhoven (Away)

Goals scored / match2.53
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate71%

Team Form last 5 matches

NAC Breda
DWLLD
PSV Eindhoven
WWDWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

65% +0.5 100%
41% +1.5 82%
12% +2.5 35%
0% +3.5 24%
0% +4.5 12%
47% BTTS 71%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 69%. Model confidence is Medium.

NAC Breda averages 1.18 goals scored at home, while PSV Eindhoven averages 2.53 goals scored away.

Model Strength
69%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
19%
Draw
19%
Away Win
62%
Over 2.5
69%
BTTS Yes
64%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 NAC Breda(A) 2 - 2 PSV Eindhoven Draw
Nov 2025 NAC Breda 0 - 1 PSV Eindhoven Away
Jan 2025 NAC Breda(A) 2 - 3 PSV Eindhoven Away
Nov 2024 NAC Breda 0 - 3 PSV Eindhoven Away
Feb 2022 NAC Breda(A) 0 - 4 PSV Eindhoven Away

In the last 5 meetings, NAC Breda won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

NAC Breda — unbeaten run (home)1
NAC Breda — scoring streak (home)1
PSV Eindhoven — winless run (away)0
PSV Eindhoven — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

NAC Breda Win (1)19%
Draw (X)19%
PSV Eindhoven Win (2)62%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

65% +0.5 100%
41% +1.5 82%
12% +2.5 35%
0% +3.5 24%
0% +4.5 12%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

35% -0.5 0%
59% -1.5 18%
88% -2.5 65%
100% -3.5 76%
100% -4.5 88%

NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

NAC Breda — scored (home)1.18
NAC Breda — conceded (home)1.35
PSV Eindhoven — scored (away)2.53
PSV Eindhoven — conceded (away)1.12
Model expected combined goals3.58

Both Teams To Score

Yes64%
No36%

Rate per Team

NAC Breda — BTTS matches (home)47%
PSV Eindhoven — BTTS matches (away)71%
Combined (simple average)59%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.588%
Under 5.512%
Over 6.588%
Under 6.512%
Over 7.585%
Under 7.515%
Over 8.576%
Under 8.524%
Over 9.571%
Under 9.529%
Over 10.559%
Under 10.541%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

NAC Breda (home)

Corners for6.1
Corners against4.1

PSV Eindhoven (away)

Corners for6.7
Corners against4.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

NAC Breda
13 13 12 10 13
PSV Eindhoven
7 8 10 12 20

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4

Yellow Cards per Team

NAC Breda (home)

For1.5

PSV Eindhoven (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

NAC Breda — total shots (home)14.9
PSV Eindhoven — total shots (away)16.0

Shots on Target

NAC Breda — on target (home)4.4
PSV Eindhoven — on target (away)7.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

NAC Breda

Inside the box8.56
Outside the box5.56

PSV Eindhoven

Inside the box12.15
Outside the box5.41

Player Shots NAC Breda

M. Soumano
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
S. van Hooijdonk
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
C. Brym
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
M. Nassoh
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target11%
A. Ayew
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots PSV Eindhoven

I. Saibari
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target48%
R. Pepi
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target77%
+1.5 On Target35%
R. van Bommel
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target17%
G. Til
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target21%
P. Wanner
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target14%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

NAC Breda xG (home)1.21
PSV Eindhoven xG (away)2.18

Average Possession

48.85% Possession 60.85%

Team Comparison NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven

77.59% Pass accuracy 86.21%
394.91 Passes per match 549.82
0.02 Goals prevented -0.46
10.82 Fouls committed 10.26
3.53 Goalkeeper saves 2.74
1.52 Offsides 1.65
16.24 Tackles per match 16.79

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven prediction analysis

Review NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eredivisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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