Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: NAC Breda vs Utrecht

NAC Breda vs Utrecht prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eredivisie 2025-12-14 15:45
NAC Breda
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
51%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Utrecht
Away

Prediction Summary

1
44%
X
25%
2
31%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

NAC Breda (Home)

Goals scored / match1.18
Goals conceded / match1.35
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate47%

Utrecht (Away)

Goals scored / match1.33
Goals conceded / match1.61
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate67%

Team Form last 5 matches

NAC Breda
DWLLD
Utrecht
DWWWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

65% +0.5 78%
41% +1.5 44%
12% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 67%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 51%. Model confidence is Low.

NAC Breda averages 1.18 goals scored at home, while Utrecht averages 1.33 goals scored away.

Model Strength
55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
44%
Draw
25%
Away Win
31%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
55%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 NAC Breda(A) 0 - 2 Utrecht Away
Dec 2025 NAC Breda 1 - 1 Utrecht Draw
Mar 2025 NAC Breda(A) 0 - 1 Utrecht Away
Aug 2024 NAC Breda 1 - 2 Utrecht Away
Dec 2021 NAC Breda 3 - 2 Utrecht Home

In the last 5 meetings, NAC Breda won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

NAC Breda — unbeaten run (home)1
NAC Breda — scoring streak (home)1
Utrecht — winless run (away)1
Utrecht — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

NAC Breda Win (1)44%
Draw (X)25%
Utrecht Win (2)31%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

65% +0.5 78%
41% +1.5 44%
12% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

35% -0.5 22%
59% -1.5 56%
88% -2.5 89%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

NAC Breda vs Utrecht — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

NAC Breda — scored (home)1.18
NAC Breda — conceded (home)1.35
Utrecht — scored (away)1.33
Utrecht — conceded (away)1.61
Model expected combined goals2.71

Both Teams To Score

Yes55%
No45%

Rate per Team

NAC Breda — BTTS matches (home)47%
Utrecht — BTTS matches (away)67%
Combined (simple average)57%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.583%
Under 5.517%
Over 6.583%
Under 6.517%
Over 7.577%
Under 7.523%
Over 8.574%
Under 8.526%
Over 9.563%
Under 9.537%
Over 10.555%
Under 10.545%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

NAC Breda (home)

Corners for6.1
Corners against4.1

Utrecht (away)

Corners for5.2
Corners against4.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

NAC Breda
13 13 12 10 13
Utrecht
12 11 7 15 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.6

Yellow Cards per Team

NAC Breda (home)

For1.5

Utrecht (away)

For1.8

Shots per Game

NAC Breda — total shots (home)14.9
Utrecht — total shots (away)13.2

Shots on Target

NAC Breda — on target (home)4.4
Utrecht — on target (away)5.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

NAC Breda

Inside the box8.56
Outside the box5.56

Utrecht

Inside the box10.39
Outside the box4.89

Player Shots NAC Breda

M. Soumano
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
S. van Hooijdonk
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
C. Brym
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
M. Nassoh
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target11%
A. Ayew
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Utrecht

Ángel Alarcón
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target36%
V. Jensen
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target88%
+1.5 On Target13%
G. Zechiël
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target19%
Y. Cathline
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Stepanov
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

NAC Breda xG (home)1.21
Utrecht xG (away)1.51

Average Possession

48.85% Possession 46.53%

Team Comparison NAC Breda vs Utrecht

77.59% Pass accuracy 78.69%
394.91 Passes per match 398.92
0.02 Goals prevented -0.15
10.82 Fouls committed 10.86
3.53 Goalkeeper saves 3.47
1.52 Offsides 1.25
16.24 Tackles per match 16.39

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

NAC Breda vs Utrecht prediction analysis

Review NAC Breda vs Utrecht with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eredivisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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