What markets are included in the Nacional vs Arouca prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Nacional vs Arouca prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Nacional vs Arouca

Nacional vs Arouca prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-02-01 15:30

Nacional

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

53%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Arouca

Away

Prediction Summary

48%

25%

28%

Over 2.5

53%

BTTS Yes

55%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Nacional (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match1.59

Over 2.5 rate18%

BTTS rate47%

Arouca (Away)

Goals scored / match1.12

Goals conceded / match1.76

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Nacional

LDLDL

Arouca

WDDLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 76%

47% +1.5 29%

18% +2.5 6%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Medium.

Nacional averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Arouca averages 1.12 goals scored away.

Model Strength

55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

48%

Draw

25%

Away Win

28%

Over 2.5

53%

BTTS Yes

55%

Head-to-Head last 4

Feb 2026 Nacional(A) 0 - 3 Arouca Away

Sep 2025 Nacional 1 - 2 Arouca Away

Feb 2025 Nacional 1 - 2 Arouca Away

Aug 2024 Nacional(A) 0 - 1 Arouca Away

In the last 4 meetings, Nacional won 0, drew 0 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Nacional — unbeaten run (home)1

Nacional — scoring streak (home)2

Arouca — winless run (away)4

Arouca — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Nacional Win (1)48%

Draw (X)25%

Arouca Win (2)28%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 76%

47% +1.5 29%

18% +2.5 6%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 24%

53% -1.5 71%

82% -2.5 94%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Nacional vs Arouca — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Nacional — scored (home)1.35

Nacional — conceded (home)1.59

Arouca — scored (away)1.12

Arouca — conceded (away)1.76

Model expected combined goals2.78

Both Teams To Score

Yes55%

No45%

Rate per Team

Nacional — BTTS matches (home)47%

Arouca — BTTS matches (away)65%

Combined (simple average)56%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.597%

Under 5.53%

Over 6.588%

Under 6.512%

Over 7.576%

Under 7.524%

Over 8.562%

Under 8.538%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.541%

Under 10.559%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Nacional (home)

Corners for4.6

Corners against5.0

Arouca (away)

Corners for5.2

Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Nacional

Arouca

8 8 5 5 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.5100%

Under 1.50%

Over 2.594%

Under 2.56%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Nacional (home)

For2.2

Arouca (away)

For2.9

Shots per Game

Nacional — total shots (home)14.4

Arouca — total shots (away)11.8

Shots on Target

Nacional — on target (home)4.5

Arouca — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Nacional

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box6.15

Arouca

Inside the box6.5

Outside the box5.21

Player Shots Nacional

Dudu

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target14%

Paulinho Bóia

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target13%

N. Thomas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target11%

Daniel Penha

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Rúben Macedo

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Arouca

V. Morozov

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target18%

D. Nandín

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Ivo Rodrigues

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target9%

Jason

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target16%

Pablo Gozálbez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Nacional xG (home)1.03

Arouca xG (away)1.15

Average Possession

47.29% Possession 52.59%

Team Comparison Nacional vs Arouca

76.94% Pass accuracy 80.94%

339.32 Passes per match 421.68

0 Goals prevented -0.03

13.5 Fouls committed 14.65

3.15 Goalkeeper saves 2.82

1.65 Offsides 1.88

15.94 Tackles per match 16.32

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Nacional vs Arouca prediction analysis

Review Nacional vs Arouca with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights