What markets are included in the Nacional vs Casa Pia prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Nacional vs Casa Pia prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Nacional vs Casa Pia

Nacional vs Casa Pia prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-03-16 15:30

Nacional

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

52%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Casa Pia

Away

Prediction Summary

41%

25%

33%

Over 2.5

52%

BTTS Yes

56%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Nacional (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match1.59

Over 2.5 rate18%

BTTS rate47%

Casa Pia (Away)

Goals scored / match1

Goals conceded / match1.47

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Nacional

LDLDL

Casa Pia

LWDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 65%

47% +1.5 29%

18% +2.5 6%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Medium.

Nacional averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Casa Pia averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength

56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

41%

Draw

25%

Away Win

33%

Over 2.5

52%

BTTS Yes

56%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Nacional 0 - 0 Casa Pia Draw

Aug 2025 Nacional(A) 2 - 0 Casa Pia Home

Mar 2025 Nacional 3 - 1 Casa Pia Home

Oct 2024 Nacional(A) 0 - 1 Casa Pia Away

Nov 2023 Nacional 0 - 0 Casa Pia Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Nacional won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Nacional — unbeaten run (home)1

Nacional — scoring streak (home)2

Casa Pia — winless run (away)8

Casa Pia — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Nacional Win (1)41%

Draw (X)25%

Casa Pia Win (2)33%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 65%

47% +1.5 29%

18% +2.5 6%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 35%

53% -1.5 71%

82% -2.5 94%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Nacional vs Casa Pia — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Nacional — scored (home)1.35

Nacional — conceded (home)1.59

Casa Pia — scored (away)1

Casa Pia — conceded (away)1.47

Model expected combined goals2.75

Both Teams To Score

Yes56%

No44%

Rate per Team

Nacional — BTTS matches (home)47%

Casa Pia — BTTS matches (away)53%

Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.591%

Under 5.59%

Over 6.588%

Under 6.512%

Over 7.571%

Under 7.529%

Over 8.562%

Under 8.538%

Over 9.541%

Under 9.559%

Over 10.535%

Under 10.565%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Nacional (home)

Corners for4.6

Corners against5.0

Casa Pia (away)

Corners for3.3

Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Nacional

9 7 9 9 10

Casa Pia

7 8 5 9 17

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.597%

Under 1.53%

Over 2.591%

Under 2.59%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Nacional (home)

For2.2

Casa Pia (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Nacional — total shots (home)14.4

Casa Pia — total shots (away)8.1

Shots on Target

Nacional — on target (home)4.5

Casa Pia — on target (away)2.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Nacional

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box6.15

Casa Pia

Inside the box5.59

Outside the box3.76

Player Shots Nacional

Dudu

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target14%

Paulinho Bóia

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target13%

N. Thomas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target11%

Daniel Penha

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Rúben Macedo

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Casa Pia

Max Svensson

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target17%

Nuno Moreira

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target19%

Henrique Pereira

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target13%

+1.5 On Target4%

Cassiano

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target58%

+1.5 On Target12%

Leonardo Lelo

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target19%

+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Nacional xG (home)1.03

Casa Pia xG (away)0.9

Average Possession

47.29% Possession 46.65%

Team Comparison Nacional vs Casa Pia

76.94% Pass accuracy 76.68%

339.32 Passes per match 363.74

0 Goals prevented 0.09

13.5 Fouls committed 14.82

3.15 Goalkeeper saves 3.64

1.65 Offsides 1.32

15.94 Tackles per match 14.71

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Nacional vs Casa Pia prediction analysis

Review Nacional vs Casa Pia with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights