Prediction Analysis: Nacional vs Estoril
Nacional vs Estoril prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primeira Liga
2026-08-16
14:30
Nacional
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
58%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Estoril
Away
Prediction Summary
1
42%
X
24%
2
34%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Nacional (Home)
Goals scored / match1.35
Goals conceded / match1.35
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate47%
Estoril (Away)
Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.82
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
Nacional
WLLWW
Estoril
LDDLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
71%
+0.5
65%
35%
+1.5
41%
24%
+2.5
18%
6%
+3.5
18%
0%
+4.5
6%
47%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.
Nacional averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Estoril averages 1.47 goals scored away.
Model Strength
60%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
42%
Draw
24%
Away Win
34%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
Nacional
0 - 1
Estoril
Away
Oct 2025
Nacional(A)
1 - 1
Estoril
Draw
Feb 2025
Nacional
2 - 2
Estoril
Draw
Sep 2024
Nacional(A)
0 - 1
Estoril
Away
Jul 2021
Nacional
1 - 2
Estoril
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Nacional won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Nacional — unbeaten run (home)1
Nacional — scoring streak (home)4
Estoril — winless run (away)4
Estoril — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Nacional Win (1)42%
Draw (X)24%
Estoril Win (2)34%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
71%
+0.5
65%
35%
+1.5
41%
24%
+2.5
18%
6%
+3.5
18%
0%
+4.5
6%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
29%
-0.5
35%
65%
-1.5
59%
76%
-2.5
82%
94%
-3.5
82%
100%
-4.5
94%
Nacional vs Estoril — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Nacional — scored (home)1.35
Nacional — conceded (home)1.35
Estoril — scored (away)1.47
Estoril — conceded (away)1.82
Model expected combined goals3
Both Teams To Score
Yes60%
No40%
Rate per Team
Nacional — BTTS matches (home)47%
Estoril — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)47%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Nacional (home)
Corners for4.8
Corners against6.9
Estoril (away)
Corners for4.1
Corners against4.4
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Nacional
12
15
14
10
8
Estoril
6
13
9
8
11
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.594%
Under 2.56%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.5
Yellow Cards per Team
Nacional (home)
For3.2
Estoril (away)
For2.4
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.571%
Under 19.529%
Over 22.558%
Under 22.542%
Over 25.545%
Under 25.555%
Expected total shots25.31
Nacional
Shots Over 9.573%
Shots Over 11.559%
Shots Over 13.544%
Expected shots13.21
On Target Over 3.561%
On Target Over 4.544%
On Target Over 5.530%
Expected on target4.42
Estoril
Shots Over 9.567%
Shots Over 11.550%
Shots Over 13.535%
Expected shots12.10
On Target Over 3.553%
On Target Over 4.536%
On Target Over 5.522%
Expected on target3.93
Shots per Game
Nacional — total shots (home)12.6
Estoril — total shots (away)11.3
Shots on Target
Nacional — on target (home)4.1
Estoril — on target (away)3.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Nacional
Inside the box7.32
Outside the box5.24
Estoril
Inside the box7.44
Outside the box4.21
Player Shots Nacional
C. Ramírez
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target85%
+1.5 On Target36%
Paulinho Bóia
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target12%
Daniel Júnior
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target0%
Gabriel Veron
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target8%
Zé Vitor
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots Estoril
Y. Begraoui
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target26%
André Lacximicant
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target14%
João Carvalho
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target9%
Alejandro Marqués
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target8%
R. Guitane
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target3%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional xG (home)1.15
Estoril xG (away)1.26
Average Possession
46.12%
Possession
52.71%
Team Comparison Nacional vs Estoril
75.62%
Pass accuracy
80.88%
332.56
Passes per match
444
0.02
Goals prevented
-0.27
14.91
Fouls committed
12.94
3.12
Goalkeeper saves
2.71
1.39
Offsides
1.35
16.41
Tackles per match
14.76
League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Nacional vs Estoril prediction analysis
Review Nacional vs Estoril with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights