What markets are included in the Nacional vs Estrela prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Nacional vs Estrela prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Nacional vs Estrela

Nacional vs Estrela prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-04-06 17:00

Nacional

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

42%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Estrela

Away

Prediction Summary

51%

27%

23%

Under 2.5

58%

BTTS No

55%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Nacional (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match1.59

Over 2.5 rate18%

BTTS rate47%

Estrela (Away)

Goals scored / match0.35

Goals conceded / match1.53

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate24%

Team Form last 5 matches

Nacional

LDLDL

Estrela

LLLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 35%

47% +1.5 0%

18% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 24%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 42%. Model confidence is Medium.

Nacional averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Estrela averages 0.35 goals scored away.

Model Strength

58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

51%

Draw

27%

Away Win

23%

Over 2.5

42%

BTTS Yes

45%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jul 2026 Nacional(A) 0 - 2 Estrela Away

Apr 2026 Nacional 2 - 0 Estrela Home

Nov 2025 Nacional(A) 1 - 1 Estrela Draw

Apr 2025 Nacional 0 - 1 Estrela Away

Nov 2024 Nacional(A) 0 - 2 Estrela Away

In the last 5 meetings, Nacional won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Nacional — unbeaten run (home)1

Nacional — scoring streak (home)2

Estrela — winless run (away)3

Estrela — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Nacional Win (1)51%

Draw (X)27%

Estrela Win (2)23%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 35%

47% +1.5 0%

18% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 65%

53% -1.5 100%

82% -2.5 100%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Nacional vs Estrela — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Nacional — scored (home)1.35

Nacional — conceded (home)1.59

Estrela — scored (away)0.35

Estrela — conceded (away)1.53

Model expected combined goals2.35

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%

No55%

Rate per Team

Nacional — BTTS matches (home)47%

Estrela — BTTS matches (away)24%

Combined (simple average)35.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.597%

Under 5.53%

Over 6.594%

Under 6.56%

Over 7.579%

Under 7.521%

Over 8.562%

Under 8.538%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.541%

Under 10.559%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Nacional (home)

Corners for4.6

Corners against5.0

Estrela (away)

Corners for3.9

Corners against6.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Nacional

9 7 9 9 10

Estrela

8 16 8 7 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.5100%

Under 1.50%

Over 2.597%

Under 2.53%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Nacional (home)

For2.2

Estrela (away)

For3.1

Shots per Game

Nacional — total shots (home)14.4

Estrela — total shots (away)9.2

Shots on Target

Nacional — on target (home)4.5

Estrela — on target (away)2.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Nacional

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box6.15

Estrela

Inside the box5.41

Outside the box4.32

Player Shots Nacional

Dudu

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target14%

Paulinho Bóia

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target13%

N. Thomas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target11%

Daniel Penha

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Rúben Macedo

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Estrela

Igor Jesus

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target8%

+1.5 On Target8%

Nilton Varela

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target4%

+1.5 On Target4%

André Luiz

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target18%

Kikas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target13%

Chico Banza

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target23%

+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Nacional xG (home)1.03

Estrela xG (away)0.8

Average Possession

47.29% Possession 44.62%

Team Comparison Nacional vs Estrela

76.94% Pass accuracy 74.65%

339.32 Passes per match 325.97

0 Goals prevented -0.13

13.5 Fouls committed 15.32

3.15 Goalkeeper saves 3.09

1.65 Offsides 2.09

15.94 Tackles per match 18

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Nacional vs Estrela prediction analysis

Review Nacional vs Estrela with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights