What markets are included in the Nacional vs Guimaraes prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Nacional vs Guimaraes prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Nacional vs Guimaraes

Nacional vs Guimaraes prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-05-03 14:30

Nacional

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

43%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Guimaraes

Away

Prediction Summary

33%

28%

39%

Under 2.5

57%

BTTS No

51%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Nacional (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match1.59

Over 2.5 rate18%

BTTS rate47%

Guimaraes (Away)

Goals scored / match1.06

Goals conceded / match1.06

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate47%

Team Form last 5 matches

Nacional

LDLDL

Guimaraes

LLWWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 65%

47% +1.5 41%

18% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 47%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.

Nacional averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Guimaraes averages 1.06 goals scored away.

Model Strength

57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

33%

Draw

28%

Away Win

39%

Over 2.5

43%

BTTS Yes

49%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Nacional 2 - 0 Guimaraes Home

Jan 2026 Nacional(A) 1 - 2 Guimaraes Away

May 2025 Nacional 1 - 2 Guimaraes Away

Dec 2024 Nacional(A) 2 - 2 Guimaraes Draw

Apr 2021 Nacional 1 - 0 Guimaraes Home

In the last 5 meetings, Nacional won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Nacional — unbeaten run (home)1

Nacional — scoring streak (home)2

Guimaraes — winless run (away)1

Guimaraes — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Nacional Win (1)33%

Draw (X)28%

Guimaraes Win (2)39%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 65%

47% +1.5 41%

18% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 35%

53% -1.5 59%

82% -2.5 100%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Nacional vs Guimaraes — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Nacional — scored (home)1.35

Nacional — conceded (home)1.59

Guimaraes — scored (away)1.06

Guimaraes — conceded (away)1.06

Model expected combined goals2.4

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%

No51%

Rate per Team

Nacional — BTTS matches (home)47%

Guimaraes — BTTS matches (away)47%

Combined (simple average)47%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.594%

Under 5.56%

Over 6.588%

Under 6.512%

Over 7.574%

Under 7.526%

Over 8.565%

Under 8.535%

Over 9.547%

Under 9.553%

Over 10.538%

Under 10.562%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Nacional (home)

Corners for4.6

Corners against5.0

Guimaraes (away)

Corners for5.5

Corners against4.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Nacional

9 7 9 9 10

Guimaraes

10 10 9 19 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.5100%

Under 1.50%

Over 2.594%

Under 2.56%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Nacional (home)

For2.2

Guimaraes (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

Nacional — total shots (home)14.4

Guimaraes — total shots (away)11.6

Shots on Target

Nacional — on target (home)4.5

Guimaraes — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Nacional

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box6.15

Guimaraes

Inside the box8.26

Outside the box5

Player Shots Nacional

Dudu

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target14%

Paulinho Bóia

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target13%

N. Thomas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target11%

Daniel Penha

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Rúben Macedo

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Guimaraes

Ricardo Mangas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

Vando Félix

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target13%

+1.5 On Target6%

T. Borevković

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target7%

+1.5 On Target4%

Gustavo

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target14%

Nuno Santos

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target15%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Nacional xG (home)1.03

Guimaraes xG (away)1.22

Average Possession

47.29% Possession 56.91%

Team Comparison Nacional vs Guimaraes

76.94% Pass accuracy 83.32%

339.32 Passes per match 461.03

0 Goals prevented -0.08

13.5 Fouls committed 14.59

3.15 Goalkeeper saves 1.94

1.65 Offsides 1.62

15.94 Tackles per match 15.53

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Nacional vs Guimaraes prediction analysis

Review Nacional vs Guimaraes with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights