What markets are included in the Nacional vs Tondela prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Nacional vs Tondela prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Nacional vs Tondela

Nacional vs Tondela prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-12-15 17:30

Nacional

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

55%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Tondela

Away

Prediction Summary

37%

25%

38%

Over 2.5

55%

BTTS Yes

58%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Nacional (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match1.35

Over 2.5 rate24%

BTTS rate47%

Tondela (Away)

Goals scored / match0.82

Goals conceded / match2

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Nacional

WLLWW

Tondela

LWWDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 53%

35% +1.5 29%

24% +2.5 0%

6% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 55%. Model confidence is Medium.

Nacional averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Tondela averages 0.82 goals scored away.

Model Strength

58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

37%

Draw

25%

Away Win

38%

Over 2.5

55%

BTTS Yes

58%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Nacional(A) 2 - 0 Tondela Home

Dec 2025 Nacional 3 - 1 Tondela Home

May 2024 Nacional(A) 3 - 2 Tondela Home

Jan 2024 Nacional 1 - 1 Tondela Draw

Jan 2023 Nacional(A) 0 - 1 Tondela Away

In the last 5 meetings, Nacional won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Nacional — unbeaten run (home)1

Nacional — scoring streak (home)4

Tondela — winless run (away)1

Tondela — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Nacional Win (1)37%

Draw (X)25%

Tondela Win (2)38%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 53%

35% +1.5 29%

24% +2.5 0%

6% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 47%

65% -1.5 71%

76% -2.5 100%

94% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Nacional vs Tondela — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Nacional — scored (home)1.35

Nacional — conceded (home)1.35

Tondela — scored (away)0.82

Tondela — conceded (away)2

Model expected combined goals2.87

Both Teams To Score

Yes58%

No42%

Rate per Team

Nacional — BTTS matches (home)47%

Tondela — BTTS matches (away)35%

Combined (simple average)41%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.597%

Under 5.53%

Over 6.591%

Under 6.59%

Over 7.585%

Under 7.515%

Over 8.571%

Under 8.529%

Over 9.559%

Under 9.541%

Over 10.550%

Under 10.550%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Nacional (home)

Corners for4.8

Corners against6.9

Tondela (away)

Corners for4.0

Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Nacional

12 15 14 10 8

Tondela

15 10 9 9 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.594%

Under 1.56%

Over 2.586%

Under 2.514%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Nacional (home)

For3.2

Tondela (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Nacional — total shots (home)12.6

Tondela — total shots (away)9.1

Shots on Target

Nacional — on target (home)4.1

Tondela — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Nacional

Inside the box7.32

Outside the box5.24

Tondela

Inside the box6.38

Outside the box4.21

Player Shots Nacional

C. Ramírez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target85%

+1.5 On Target36%

Paulinho Bóia

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target12%

Daniel Júnior

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target0%

Gabriel Veron

Shots on Target/Game0.3

+0.5 On Target23%

+1.5 On Target8%

Zé Vitor

Shots on Target/Game0.3

+0.5 On Target30%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Tondela

Pedro Maranhão

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target15%

Rony Lopes

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target13%

Miro

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

M. Aïko

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target6%

J. Siebatcheu

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Nacional xG (home)1.15

Tondela xG (away)1.12

Average Possession

46.12% Possession 43.56%

Team Comparison Nacional vs Tondela

75.62% Pass accuracy 78.29%

332.56 Passes per match 338.06

0.02 Goals prevented 0.02

14.91 Fouls committed 14.47

3.12 Goalkeeper saves 3.38

1.39 Offsides 2.16

16.41 Tackles per match 17.56

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Nacional vs Tondela prediction analysis

Review Nacional vs Tondela with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights