Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Nantes vs Auxerre

Nantes vs Auxerre prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2025-08-30 17:00
Nantes
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Auxerre
Away

Prediction Summary

1
38%
X
26%
2
36%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Nantes (Home)

Goals scored / match1.13
Goals conceded / match1.69
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate50%

Auxerre (Away)

Goals scored / match0.94
Goals conceded / match1.59
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate47%

Team Form last 5 matches

Nantes
LWLLD
Auxerre
WWWLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

69% +0.5 53%
31% +1.5 35%
13% +2.5 6%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
50% BTTS 47%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

Nantes averages 1.13 goals scored at home, while Auxerre averages 0.94 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
38%
Draw
26%
Away Win
36%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
54%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Nantes(A) 0 - 0 Auxerre Draw
Aug 2025 Nantes 1 - 0 Auxerre Home
May 2025 Nantes(A) 1 - 1 Auxerre Draw
Aug 2024 Nantes 2 - 0 Auxerre Home
Apr 2023 Nantes(A) 1 - 2 Auxerre Away

In the last 5 meetings, Nantes won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Nantes — unbeaten run (home)2
Nantes — scoring streak (home)3
Auxerre — winless run (away)0
Auxerre — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Nantes Win (1)38%
Draw (X)26%
Auxerre Win (2)36%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

69% +0.5 53%
31% +1.5 35%
13% +2.5 6%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

31% -0.5 47%
69% -1.5 65%
87% -2.5 94%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Nantes vs Auxerre — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Nantes — scored (home)1.13
Nantes — conceded (home)1.69
Auxerre — scored (away)0.94
Auxerre — conceded (away)1.59
Model expected combined goals2.67

Both Teams To Score

Yes54%
No46%

Rate per Team

Nantes — BTTS matches (home)50%
Auxerre — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)48.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.567%
Under 7.533%
Over 8.561%
Under 8.539%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.534%
Under 10.566%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Nantes (home)

Corners for4.0
Corners against5.1

Auxerre (away)

Corners for4.1
Corners against5.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Nantes
11 13 14 15 11
Auxerre
14 9 10 11 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Nantes (home)

For1.9

Auxerre (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Nantes — total shots (home)12.1
Auxerre — total shots (away)9.9

Shots on Target

Nantes — on target (home)3.5
Auxerre — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Nantes

Inside the box7.3
Outside the box4

Auxerre

Inside the box6.94
Outside the box3.76

Player Shots Nantes

M. Abline
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target19%
I. Ganago
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target8%
M. Kaba
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target8%
R. Cabella
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target18%
Y. El-Arabi
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Auxerre

L. Sinayoko
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target28%
D. Namaso
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target13%
S. Mara
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target7%
I. Osman
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target0%
J. Casimir
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Nantes xG (home)1.1
Auxerre xG (away)1.05

Average Possession

42.03% Possession 43.91%

Team Comparison Nantes vs Auxerre

77.85% Pass accuracy 79.62%
349.06 Passes per match 372.85
0.1 Goals prevented 0.08
12.76 Fouls committed 13.74
3.27 Goalkeeper saves 3.29
1.31 Offsides 1.45
17.21 Tackles per match 18.09

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Nantes vs Auxerre prediction analysis

Review Nantes vs Auxerre with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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