Prediction Analysis: Napoli vs Bologna
Napoli vs Bologna prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-09-13
16:30
Napoli
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
52%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Bologna
Away
Prediction Summary
1
42%
X
25%
2
32%
+2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS
55%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Napoli (Home)
Goals scored / match1.74
Goals conceded / match0.95
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate58%
Bologna (Away)
Goals scored / match1.58
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate58%
Team Form last 5 matches
Napoli
WWLDW
Bologna
DWWDL
Goals Comparison rate per team
84%
+0.5
84%
63%
+1.5
53%
21%
+2.5
21%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
58%
BTTS
58%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Medium.
Napoli averages 1.74 goals scored at home, while Bologna averages 1.58 goals scored away.
Model Strength
55%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
42%
Draw
25%
Away Win
32%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Napoli
2 - 3
Bologna
Away
Nov 2025
Napoli(A)
0 - 2
Bologna
Away
Apr 2025
Napoli(A)
1 - 1
Bologna
Draw
Aug 2024
Napoli
3 - 0
Bologna
Home
May 2024
Napoli
0 - 2
Bologna
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Napoli won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Napoli — unbeaten run (home)1
Napoli — scoring streak (home)3
Bologna — winless run (away)0
Bologna — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Napoli Win (1)42%
Draw (X)25%
Bologna Win (2)32%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
84%
+0.5
84%
63%
+1.5
53%
21%
+2.5
21%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
16%
-0.5
16%
37%
-1.5
47%
79%
-2.5
79%
95%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Napoli vs Bologna — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Napoli — scored (home)1.74
Napoli — conceded (home)0.95
Bologna — scored (away)1.58
Bologna — conceded (away)1.21
Model expected combined goals2.74
Both Teams To Score
Yes55%
No45%
Rate per Team
Napoli — BTTS matches (home)58%
Bologna — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)58%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Napoli (home)
Corners for6.3
Corners against2.6
Bologna (away)
Corners for3.7
Corners against4.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Napoli
12
5
8
7
6
Bologna
14
9
8
7
5
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.6
Yellow Cards per Team
Napoli (home)
For1.1
Bologna (away)
For2.2
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.569%
Under 19.531%
Over 22.555%
Under 22.545%
Over 25.541%
Under 25.559%
Expected total shots24.38
Napoli
Shots Over 9.577%
Shots Over 11.562%
Shots Over 13.547%
Expected shots13.64
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.548%
On Target Over 5.533%
Expected on target4.66
Bologna
Shots Over 9.557%
Shots Over 11.539%
Shots Over 13.525%
Expected shots10.74
On Target Over 3.545%
On Target Over 4.528%
On Target Over 5.516%
Expected on target3.48
Shots per Game
Napoli — total shots (home)13.8
Bologna — total shots (away)11.0
Shots on Target
Napoli — on target (home)5.2
Bologna — on target (away)3.8
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Napoli
Inside the box8.47
Outside the box4.74
Bologna
Inside the box8.08
Outside the box4.79
Player Shots Napoli
Alisson Santos
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target43%
S. McTominay
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target30%
R. Højlund
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target21%
K. De Bruyne
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target11%
A. Zambo Anguissa
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target11%
Player Shots Bologna
R. Orsolini
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target23%
J. Rowe
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target11%
S. Castro
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target17%
J. Odgaard
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
F. Bernardeschi
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Napoli xG (home)1.35
Bologna xG (away)1.17
Average Possession
58.87%
Possession
55.05%
Team Comparison Napoli vs Bologna
86.66%
Pass accuracy
82.39%
556.63
Passes per match
443.82
-0.18
Goals prevented
0.07
11.18
Fouls committed
13.16
2.03
Goalkeeper saves
2.42
1.7
Offsides
1.97
12.16
Tackles per match
14.24
League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Napoli vs Bologna prediction analysis
Review Napoli vs Bologna with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights