What markets are included in the Napoli vs Genoa prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Napoli vs Genoa prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Napoli vs Genoa

Napoli vs Genoa prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-05-11 18:45

Napoli

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

35%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Genoa

Away

Prediction Summary

56%

27%

17%

Under 2.5

65%

BTTS No

64%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Napoli (Home)

Goals scored / match1.68

Goals conceded / match0.68

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate42%

Genoa (Away)

Goals scored / match0.84

Goals conceded / match1.26

Over 2.5 rate5%

BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Napoli

WDDWW

Genoa

WLDLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 58%

63% +1.5 21%

16% +2.5 5%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

42% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 35%. Model confidence is Medium.

Napoli averages 1.68 goals scored at home, while Genoa averages 0.84 goals scored away.

Model Strength

65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

56%

Draw

27%

Away Win

17%

Over 2.5

35%

BTTS Yes

36%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Napoli(A) 3 - 2 Genoa Home

Oct 2025 Napoli 2 - 1 Genoa Home

May 2025 Napoli 2 - 2 Genoa Draw

Dec 2024 Napoli(A) 2 - 1 Genoa Home

Feb 2024 Napoli 1 - 1 Genoa Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Napoli won 3, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Napoli — unbeaten run (home)11

Napoli — scoring streak (home)11

Genoa — winless run (away)0

Genoa — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Napoli Win (1)56%

Draw (X)27%

Genoa Win (2)17%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 58%

63% +1.5 21%

16% +2.5 5%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 42%

37% -1.5 79%

84% -2.5 95%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Napoli vs Genoa — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Napoli — scored (home)1.68

Napoli — conceded (home)0.68

Genoa — scored (away)0.84

Genoa — conceded (away)1.26

Model expected combined goals2.09

Both Teams To Score

Yes36%

No64%

Rate per Team

Napoli — BTTS matches (home)42%

Genoa — BTTS matches (away)42%

Combined (simple average)42%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%

Under 4.52%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.587%

Under 6.513%

Over 7.574%

Under 7.526%

Over 8.558%

Under 8.542%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.535%

Under 10.565%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Napoli (home)

Corners for6.8

Corners against3.3

Genoa (away)

Corners for3.5

Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Napoli

7 7 8 5 11

Genoa

9 15 8 7 14

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%

Under 0.55%

Over 1.587%

Under 1.513%

Over 2.571%

Under 2.529%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Napoli (home)

For1.2

Genoa (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Napoli — total shots (home)16.3

Genoa — total shots (away)8.6

Shots on Target

Napoli — on target (home)5.0

Genoa — on target (away)2.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Napoli

Inside the box9.26

Outside the box4

Genoa

Inside the box6.74

Outside the box3.39

Player Shots Napoli

C. Ngonge

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target17%

+1.5 On Target11%

G. Raspadori

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target8%

P. Billing

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target20%

+1.5 On Target10%

S. McTominay

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target68%

+1.5 On Target24%

K. Kvaratskhelia

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target71%

+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Genoa

A. Pinamonti

Shots on Target/Game1.9

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target28%

K. De Winter

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target16%

+1.5 On Target12%

F. Miretti

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target16%

+1.5 On Target8%

C. Ekuban

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target6%

L. Venturino

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target17%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Napoli xG (home)1.43

Genoa xG (away)0.99

Average Possession

54.55% Possession 45.61%

Team Comparison Napoli vs Genoa

86.08% Pass accuracy 78.32%

485.32 Passes per match 372.39

0.04 Goals prevented 0.1

10.92 Fouls committed 13.08

1.92 Goalkeeper saves 3.14

1.49 Offsides 1.53

14.08 Tackles per match 17.68

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Napoli vs Genoa prediction analysis

Review Napoli vs Genoa with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights