What markets are included in the Napoli vs Qarabag prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Napoli vs Qarabag prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Napoli vs Qarabag

Napoli vs Qarabag prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions

UEFA Champions League 2025-11-25 20:00

Napoli

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

57%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Qarabag

Away

Prediction Summary

32%

24%

43%

Over 2.5

57%

BTTS Yes

59%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Napoli (Home)

Goals scored / match1.5

Goals conceded / match1

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate50%

Qarabag (Away)

Goals scored / match1.63

Goals conceded / match2.13

Over 2.5 rate38%

BTTS rate50%

Team Form last 5 matches

Napoli

LDLWD

Qarabag

LLLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

75% +0.5 75%

75% +1.5 50%

0% +2.5 38%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

50% BTTS 50%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.

Napoli averages 1.5 goals scored at home, while Qarabag averages 1.63 goals scored away.

Model Strength

59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

32%

Draw

24%

Away Win

43%

Over 2.5

57%

BTTS Yes

59%

Head-to-Head last 1

Nov 2025 Napoli 2 - 0 Qarabag Home

In the last 1 meetings, Napoli won 1, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Napoli — unbeaten run (home)0

Napoli — scoring streak (home)2

Qarabag — winless run (away)4

Qarabag — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Napoli Win (1)32%

Draw (X)24%

Qarabag Win (2)43%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

75% +0.5 75%

75% +1.5 50%

0% +2.5 38%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

25% -0.5 25%

25% -1.5 50%

100% -2.5 62%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Napoli vs Qarabag — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Napoli — scored (home)1.5

Napoli — conceded (home)1

Qarabag — scored (away)1.63

Qarabag — conceded (away)2.13

Model expected combined goals2.95

Both Teams To Score

Yes59%

No41%

Rate per Team

Napoli — BTTS matches (home)50%

Qarabag — BTTS matches (away)50%

Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.588%

Under 5.512%

Over 6.588%

Under 6.512%

Over 7.579%

Under 7.521%

Over 8.567%

Under 8.533%

Over 9.554%

Under 9.546%

Over 10.534%

Under 10.566%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Napoli (home)

Corners for5.5

Corners against2.5

Qarabag (away)

Corners for3.3

Corners against8.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Napoli

8 10 8 12 5

Qarabag

10 8 15 14 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.571%

Under 0.529%

Over 1.554%

Under 1.546%

Over 2.554%

Under 2.546%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)2

Yellow Cards per Team

Napoli (home)

For2.0

Qarabag (away)

For1.3

Shots per Game

Napoli — total shots (home)13.8

Qarabag — total shots (away)9.8

Shots on Target

Napoli — on target (home)4.8

Qarabag — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Napoli

Inside the box8.38

Outside the box3.38

Qarabag

Inside the box6.25

Outside the box4.08

Player Shots Napoli

A. Vergara

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

S. McTominay

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target38%

R. Højlund

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target57%

+1.5 On Target14%

M. Olivera

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

David Neres

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target17%

Player Shots Qarabag

C. Durán

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target70%

+1.5 On Target30%

Leandro Andrade

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target0%

O. Kashchuk

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target0%

E. Addai

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target25%

+1.5 On Target8%

Joni Montiel

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Napoli xG (home)1.33

Qarabag xG (away)1.09

Average Possession

51.63% Possession 45.25%

Team Comparison Napoli vs Qarabag

86.38% Pass accuracy 80.33%

513 Passes per match 389.08

0.06 Goals prevented -0.34

13.75 Fouls committed 7.17

3.38 Goalkeeper saves 4.08

1.13 Offsides 1.25

13.63 Tackles per match 14.58

League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Napoli vs Qarabag prediction analysis

Review Napoli vs Qarabag with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights