Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Napoli vs Venezia

Napoli vs Venezia prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2024-12-29 14:00
Napoli
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
47%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Venezia
Away

Prediction Summary

1
62%
X
22%
2
15%
Under 2.5
53%
BTTS No
55%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Napoli (Home)

Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match0.68
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate42%

Venezia (Away)

Goals scored / match0.79
Goals conceded / match1.79
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Napoli
WDDWW
Venezia
LLWDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 58%
63% +1.5 21%
16% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
42% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Medium.

Napoli averages 1.68 goals scored at home, while Venezia averages 0.79 goals scored away.

Model Strength
62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
62%
Draw
22%
Away Win
15%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Yes
45%

Head-to-Head last 4

Mar 2025 Napoli(A) 0 - 0 Venezia Draw
Dec 2024 Napoli 1 - 0 Venezia Home
Feb 2022 Napoli(A) 2 - 0 Venezia Home
Aug 2021 Napoli 2 - 0 Venezia Home

In the last 4 meetings, Napoli won 3, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Napoli — unbeaten run (home)11
Napoli — scoring streak (home)11
Venezia — winless run (away)19
Venezia — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Napoli Win (1)62%
Draw (X)22%
Venezia Win (2)15%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 58%
63% +1.5 21%
16% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 42%
37% -1.5 79%
84% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Napoli vs Venezia — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Napoli — scored (home)1.68
Napoli — conceded (home)0.68
Venezia — scored (away)0.79
Venezia — conceded (away)1.79
Model expected combined goals2.57

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%
No55%

Rate per Team

Napoli — BTTS matches (home)42%
Venezia — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.589%
Under 5.511%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.561%
Under 8.539%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Napoli (home)

Corners for6.8
Corners against3.3

Venezia (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Napoli
7 7 8 5 11
Venezia
9 6 6 16 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Napoli (home)

For1.2

Venezia (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Napoli — total shots (home)16.3
Venezia — total shots (away)9.3

Shots on Target

Napoli — on target (home)5.0
Venezia — on target (away)2.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Napoli

Inside the box9.26
Outside the box4

Venezia

Inside the box5.97
Outside the box4.21

Player Shots Napoli

C. Ngonge
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target11%
G. Raspadori
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target8%
P. Billing
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%
S. McTominay
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target24%
K. Kvaratskhelia
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Venezia

J. Pohjanpalo
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target25%
H. Nicolussi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Duncan
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target6%
G. Oristanio
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target5%
D. Fila
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Napoli xG (home)1.43
Venezia xG (away)0.99

Average Possession

54.55% Possession 44.84%

Team Comparison Napoli vs Venezia

86.08% Pass accuracy 77.79%
485.32 Passes per match 359.11
0.04 Goals prevented 0.04
10.92 Fouls committed 13.24
1.92 Goalkeeper saves 3.7
1.49 Offsides 1.57
14.08 Tackles per match 15.95

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Napoli vs Venezia prediction analysis

Review Napoli vs Venezia with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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