Prediction Analysis: Necaxa vs Leon
Necaxa vs Leon prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Liga MX
2026-08-18
01:00
Necaxa
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
45%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Leon
Away
Prediction Summary
1
59%
X
24%
2
17%
Under 2.5
55%
BTTS No
56%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Necaxa (Home)
Goals scored / match1.28
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate22%
BTTS rate50%
Leon (Away)
Goals scored / match0.56
Goals conceded / match2.11
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate33%
Team Form last 5 matches
Necaxa
WLDDL
Leon
LLLLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
61%
+0.5
44%
33%
+1.5
11%
22%
+2.5
0%
11%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
50%
BTTS
33%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 45%. Model confidence is Medium.
Necaxa averages 1.28 goals scored at home, while Leon averages 0.56 goals scored away.
Model Strength
59%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
59%
Draw
24%
Away Win
17%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
Necaxa(A)
1 - 2
Leon
Away
Aug 2025
Necaxa
0 - 1
Leon
Away
Mar 2025
Necaxa
2 - 1
Leon
Home
Jul 2024
Necaxa(A)
1 - 1
Leon
Draw
Apr 2024
Necaxa
1 - 2
Leon
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Necaxa won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Necaxa — unbeaten run (home)5
Necaxa — scoring streak (home)1
Leon — winless run (away)2
Leon — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Necaxa Win (1)59%
Draw (X)24%
Leon Win (2)17%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
61%
+0.5
44%
33%
+1.5
11%
22%
+2.5
0%
11%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
39%
-0.5
56%
67%
-1.5
89%
78%
-2.5
100%
89%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Necaxa vs Leon — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Necaxa — scored (home)1.28
Necaxa — conceded (home)1
Leon — scored (away)0.56
Leon — conceded (away)2.11
Model expected combined goals2.47
Both Teams To Score
Yes44%
No56%
Rate per Team
Necaxa — BTTS matches (home)50%
Leon — BTTS matches (away)33%
Combined (simple average)41.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Necaxa (home)
Corners for4.9
Corners against4.8
Leon (away)
Corners for4.6
Corners against5.5
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Necaxa
11
9
12
5
9
Leon
11
12
9
8
13
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.580%
Under 2.520%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4
Yellow Cards per Team
Necaxa (home)
For2.3
Leon (away)
For2.2
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.580%
Under 19.520%
Over 22.569%
Under 22.531%
Over 25.556%
Under 25.544%
Expected total shots27.80
Necaxa
Shots Over 9.584%
Shots Over 11.572%
Shots Over 13.558%
Expected shots15.26
On Target Over 3.573%
On Target Over 4.557%
On Target Over 5.543%
Expected on target5.29
Leon
Shots Over 9.570%
Shots Over 11.554%
Shots Over 13.539%
Expected shots12.54
On Target Over 3.557%
On Target Over 4.540%
On Target Over 5.526%
Expected on target4.19
Shots per Game
Necaxa — total shots (home)15.6
Leon — total shots (away)12.4
Shots on Target
Necaxa — on target (home)4.5
Leon — on target (away)4.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Necaxa
Inside the box7.71
Outside the box6.26
Leon
Inside the box7.53
Outside the box5.82
Player Shots Necaxa
A. Andrade
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target20%
K. Rosero
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target16%
+1.5 On Target10%
R. Monreal
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target6%
E. Lara
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target11%
+1.5 On Target6%
D. de Buen
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target15%
Player Shots Leon
J. Rodríguez
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target29%
D. Cambindo
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target72%
+1.5 On Target39%
J. Alvarado
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target17%
R. Funes Mori
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target5%
I. Díaz
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target25%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Necaxa xG (home)1.08
Leon xG (away)1.15
Average Possession
49.29%
Possession
52.44%
Team Comparison Necaxa vs Leon
80.87%
Pass accuracy
81.22%
380.26
Passes per match
429.79
-0.09
Goals prevented
0.05
13.38
Fouls committed
13.44
2.82
Goalkeeper saves
3.59
1.13
Offsides
1.74
15.68
Tackles per match
15.37
League average xG this season is 1.32 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Necaxa vs Leon prediction and preview
Preview Necaxa vs Leon with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Liga MX
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights