Prediction Analysis: Necaxa vs Monterrey
Necaxa vs Monterrey prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Liga MX
2026-07-26
23:00
Necaxa
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
55%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Monterrey
Away
Prediction Summary
1
45%
X
25%
2
30%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Necaxa (Home)
Goals scored / match1.28
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate22%
BTTS rate50%
Monterrey (Away)
Goals scored / match1.42
Goals conceded / match1.84
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
Necaxa
WLDDL
Monterrey
WLWLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
61%
+0.5
63%
33%
+1.5
47%
22%
+2.5
16%
11%
+3.5
11%
0%
+4.5
5%
50%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 55%. Model confidence is Medium.
Necaxa averages 1.28 goals scored at home, while Monterrey averages 1.42 goals scored away.
Model Strength
55%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
45%
Draw
25%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jan 2026
Necaxa
0 - 2
Monterrey
Away
Aug 2025
Necaxa(A)
0 - 3
Monterrey
Away
Feb 2025
Necaxa(A)
0 - 1
Monterrey
Away
Jul 2024
Necaxa
0 - 1
Monterrey
Away
Apr 2024
Necaxa
2 - 5
Monterrey
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Necaxa won 0, drew 0 and lost 5.
Current Streaks
Necaxa — unbeaten run (home)5
Necaxa — scoring streak (home)1
Monterrey — winless run (away)6
Monterrey — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Necaxa Win (1)45%
Draw (X)25%
Monterrey Win (2)30%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
61%
+0.5
63%
33%
+1.5
47%
22%
+2.5
16%
11%
+3.5
11%
0%
+4.5
5%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
39%
-0.5
37%
67%
-1.5
53%
78%
-2.5
84%
89%
-3.5
89%
100%
-4.5
95%
Necaxa vs Monterrey — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Necaxa — scored (home)1.28
Necaxa — conceded (home)1
Monterrey — scored (away)1.42
Monterrey — conceded (away)1.84
Model expected combined goals2.77
Both Teams To Score
Yes55%
No45%
Rate per Team
Necaxa — BTTS matches (home)50%
Monterrey — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)48.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Necaxa (home)
Corners for4.9
Corners against4.8
Monterrey (away)
Corners for4.0
Corners against4.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Necaxa
11
9
12
5
9
Monterrey
10
11
7
9
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.575%
Under 2.525%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2
Yellow Cards per Team
Necaxa (home)
For2.3
Monterrey (away)
For2.2
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.578%
Under 19.522%
Over 22.565%
Under 22.535%
Over 25.552%
Under 25.548%
Expected total shots26.86
Necaxa
Shots Over 9.580%
Shots Over 11.566%
Shots Over 13.551%
Expected shots14.21
On Target Over 3.568%
On Target Over 4.552%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.89
Monterrey
Shots Over 9.571%
Shots Over 11.555%
Shots Over 13.540%
Expected shots12.65
On Target Over 3.559%
On Target Over 4.542%
On Target Over 5.527%
Expected on target4.28
Shots per Game
Necaxa — total shots (home)15.6
Monterrey — total shots (away)13.1
Shots on Target
Necaxa — on target (home)4.5
Monterrey — on target (away)4.8
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Necaxa
Inside the box7.71
Outside the box6.26
Monterrey
Inside the box8.18
Outside the box6.03
Player Shots Necaxa
A. Andrade
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target20%
K. Rosero
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target16%
+1.5 On Target10%
R. Monreal
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target6%
E. Lara
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target11%
+1.5 On Target6%
D. de Buen
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target15%
Player Shots Monterrey
U. Đurđević
Shots on Target/Game2.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target25%
A. Martial
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target6%
L. Orellano
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target40%
Sergio Canales
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target29%
G. Berterame
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target42%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Necaxa xG (home)1.08
Monterrey xG (away)1.29
Average Possession
49.29%
Possession
55.82%
Team Comparison Necaxa vs Monterrey
80.87%
Pass accuracy
86.09%
380.26
Passes per match
482.58
-0.09
Goals prevented
-0.03
13.38
Fouls committed
11.97
2.82
Goalkeeper saves
2.82
1.13
Offsides
1.35
15.68
Tackles per match
14.38
League average xG this season is 1.32 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Necaxa vs Monterrey prediction analysis
Review Necaxa vs Monterrey with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Liga MX.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Liga MX
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights