Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: NEOM vs Al Najma

NEOM vs Al Najma prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Pro League 2025-12-25 17:30
NEOM
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
57%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Al Najma
Away

Prediction Summary

1
47%
X
24%
2
29%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
59%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

NEOM (Home)

Goals scored / match1.18
Goals conceded / match1.41
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate65%

Al Najma (Away)

Goals scored / match0.65
Goals conceded / match2.35
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

NEOM
DLWDD
Al Najma
WLDDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

88% +0.5 53%
24% +1.5 12%
6% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
65% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.

NEOM averages 1.18 goals scored at home, while Al Najma averages 0.65 goals scored away.

Model Strength
59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
47%
Draw
24%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
59%

Head-to-Head last 4

Apr 2026 NEOM(A) 1 - 2 Al Najma Away
Dec 2025 NEOM 2 - 1 Al Najma Home
Feb 2025 NEOM 2 - 0 Al Najma Home
Oct 2024 NEOM(A) 3 - 2 Al Najma Home

In the last 4 meetings, NEOM won 3, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

NEOM — unbeaten run (home)5
NEOM — scoring streak (home)8
Al Najma — winless run (away)17
Al Najma — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

NEOM Win (1)47%
Draw (X)24%
Al Najma Win (2)29%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

88% +0.5 53%
24% +1.5 12%
6% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

12% -0.5 47%
76% -1.5 88%
94% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

NEOM vs Al Najma — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

NEOM — scored (home)1.18
NEOM — conceded (home)1.41
Al Najma — scored (away)0.65
Al Najma — conceded (away)2.35
Model expected combined goals2.98

Both Teams To Score

Yes59%
No41%

Rate per Team

NEOM — BTTS matches (home)65%
Al Najma — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)59%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.594%
Under 5.56%
Over 6.588%
Under 6.512%
Over 7.568%
Under 7.532%
Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

NEOM (home)

Corners for4.7
Corners against3.8

Al Najma (away)

Corners for3.0
Corners against7.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

NEOM
7 12 8 8 4
Al Najma
6 10 8 10 17

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

NEOM (home)

For2.0

Al Najma (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

NEOM — total shots (home)12.2
Al Najma — total shots (away)8.4

Shots on Target

NEOM — on target (home)4.7
Al Najma — on target (away)2.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

NEOM

Inside the box8.12
Outside the box5

Al Najma

Inside the box5.47
Outside the box3.74

Player Shots NEOM

S. Benrahma
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target35%
L. Rodríguez
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target17%
A. Lacazette
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target23%
R. Messi
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target8%
Abdulaziz Noor
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Al Najma

Ali Jasim
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target38%
Felippe Cardoso
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target7%
Lázaro
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target20%
A. Jasim
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target6%
B. Boutobba
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target18%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

NEOM xG (home)1.6
Al Najma xG (away)0.86

Average Possession

52.76% Possession 45.06%

Team Comparison NEOM vs Al Najma

83.58% Pass accuracy 80.32%
412.61 Passes per match 359.21
0.39 Goals prevented -0.03
11.48 Fouls committed 9.71
3.15 Goalkeeper saves 3.59
1.72 Offsides 2.21
15.58 Tackles per match 15.85

League average xG this season is 1.5 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

NEOM vs Al Najma prediction analysis

Review NEOM vs Al Najma with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Pro League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Pro League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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