Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC

New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Major League Soccer 2026-07-25 23:30
New England Revolution
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
New England Revolution
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-0
Atlanta United FC
Away

Prediction Summary

1
50%
X
26%
2
24%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS No
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

New England Revolution (Home)

Goals scored / match1.11
Goals conceded / match1.39
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate50%

Atlanta United FC (Away)

Goals scored / match0.58
Goals conceded / match1.95
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

New England Revolution
DDLWL
Atlanta United FC
DLDLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

67% +0.5 47%
39% +1.5 11%
6% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
50% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

New England Revolution averages 1.11 goals scored at home, while Atlanta United FC averages 0.58 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
50%
Draw
26%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
49%

Head-to-Head last 5

Sep 2025 New England Revolution 2 - 0 Atlanta United FC Home
Apr 2025 New England Revolution(A) 1 - 0 Atlanta United FC Home
Jul 2024 New England Revolution 2 - 1 Atlanta United FC Home
Mar 2024 New England Revolution(A) 1 - 4 Atlanta United FC Away
Jul 2023 New England Revolution 2 - 1 Atlanta United FC Home

In the last 5 meetings, New England Revolution won 4, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

New England Revolution — unbeaten run (home)4
New England Revolution — scoring streak (home)0
Atlanta United FC — winless run (away)5
Atlanta United FC — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

New England Revolution Win (1)50%
Draw (X)26%
Atlanta United FC Win (2)24%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

67% +0.5 47%
39% +1.5 11%
6% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

33% -0.5 53%
61% -1.5 89%
94% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

New England Revolution — scored (home)1.11
New England Revolution — conceded (home)1.39
Atlanta United FC — scored (away)0.58
Atlanta United FC — conceded (away)1.95
Model expected combined goals2.51

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%
No51%

Rate per Team

New England Revolution — BTTS matches (home)50%
Atlanta United FC — BTTS matches (away)42%
Combined (simple average)46%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

New England Revolution (home)

Corners for5.3
Corners against3.7

Atlanta United FC (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

New England Revolution
7 10 9 7 15
Atlanta United FC
10 8 13 6 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

New England Revolution (home)

For2.2

Atlanta United FC (away)

For2.4

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.577%
Under 19.523%
Over 22.563%
Under 22.537%
Over 25.548%
Under 25.552%
Expected total shots25.83

New England Revolution

Shots Over 9.581%
Shots Over 11.567%
Shots Over 13.550%
Expected shots14.00
On Target Over 3.571%
On Target Over 4.555%
On Target Over 5.539%
Expected on target5.03

Atlanta United FC

Shots Over 9.567%
Shots Over 11.549%
Shots Over 13.533%
Expected shots11.83
On Target Over 3.556%
On Target Over 4.538%
On Target Over 5.523%
Expected on target4.03

Shots per Game

New England Revolution — total shots (home)12.3
Atlanta United FC — total shots (away)10.6

Shots on Target

New England Revolution — on target (home)4.2
Atlanta United FC — on target (away)2.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

New England Revolution

Inside the box7.47
Outside the box4.68

Atlanta United FC

Inside the box7.68
Outside the box3.91

Player Shots New England Revolution

Carles Gil
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target23%
M. Urruti
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target10%
L. Campana
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target25%
L. Díaz
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target11%
T. Chancalay
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target23%

Player Shots Atlanta United FC

E. Latte Lath
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%
M. Almirón
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target22%
J. Thiaré
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target7%
E. Mihaj
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target10%
T. Muyumba
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target16%
+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

New England Revolution xG (home)1.28
Atlanta United FC xG (away)1.36

Average Possession

49.62% Possession 50.24%

Team Comparison New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC

83.81% Pass accuracy 85.23%
450.32 Passes per match 478.76
-0.04 Goals prevented -0.03
12 Fouls committed 10.91
3.15 Goalkeeper saves 3.55
2.16 Offsides 1.88
15.74 Tackles per match 13.37

League average xG this season is 1.48 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC prediction analysis

Review New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Major League Soccer.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Major League Soccer
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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