Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: New York City FC vs Chicago Fire

New York City FC vs Chicago Fire prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Major League Soccer 2026-07-25 23:30
New York City FC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
71%
Confidence
High
Score
1-1
Chicago Fire
Away

Prediction Summary

1
39%
X
22%
2
39%
Over 2.5
71%
BTTS Yes
70%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

New York City FC (Home)

Goals scored / match1.56
Goals conceded / match1.17
Over 2.5 rate22%
BTTS rate50%

Chicago Fire (Away)

Goals scored / match2.47
Goals conceded / match2.11
Over 2.5 rate37%
BTTS rate84%

Team Form last 5 matches

New York City FC
WLWWD
Chicago Fire
LLDWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

78% +0.5 95%
50% +1.5 79%
22% +2.5 37%
6% +3.5 16%
0% +4.5 11%
50% BTTS 84%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 71%. Model confidence is High.

New York City FC averages 1.56 goals scored at home, while Chicago Fire averages 2.47 goals scored away.

Model Strength
71%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
39%
Draw
22%
Away Win
39%
Over 2.5
71%
BTTS Yes
70%

Head-to-Head last 5

Sep 2025 New York City FC(A) 3 - 1 Chicago Fire Home
May 2025 New York City FC 3 - 1 Chicago Fire Home
Aug 2024 New York City FC 2 - 2 Chicago Fire Draw
Jul 2024 New York City FC(A) 0 - 0 Chicago Fire Draw
Oct 2023 New York City FC 1 - 0 Chicago Fire Home

In the last 5 meetings, New York City FC won 3, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

New York City FC — unbeaten run (home)1
New York City FC — scoring streak (home)0
Chicago Fire — winless run (away)3
Chicago Fire — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

New York City FC Win (1)39%
Draw (X)22%
Chicago Fire Win (2)39%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

78% +0.5 95%
50% +1.5 79%
22% +2.5 37%
6% +3.5 16%
0% +4.5 11%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

22% -0.5 5%
50% -1.5 21%
78% -2.5 63%
94% -3.5 84%
100% -4.5 89%

New York City FC vs Chicago Fire — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

New York City FC — scored (home)1.56
New York City FC — conceded (home)1.17
Chicago Fire — scored (away)2.47
Chicago Fire — conceded (away)2.11
Model expected combined goals3.65

Both Teams To Score

Yes70%
No30%

Rate per Team

New York City FC — BTTS matches (home)50%
Chicago Fire — BTTS matches (away)84%
Combined (simple average)67%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

New York City FC (home)

Corners for6.3
Corners against5.0

Chicago Fire (away)

Corners for4.0
Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

New York City FC
8 5 11 7 3
Chicago Fire
7 6 12 11 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

New York City FC (home)

For2.1

Chicago Fire (away)

For2.4

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.579%
Under 19.521%
Over 22.566%
Under 22.534%
Over 25.551%
Under 25.549%
Expected total shots26.41

New York City FC

Shots Over 9.585%
Shots Over 11.572%
Shots Over 13.557%
Expected shots14.85
On Target Over 3.574%
On Target Over 4.558%
On Target Over 5.542%
Expected on target5.24

Chicago Fire

Shots Over 9.565%
Shots Over 11.547%
Shots Over 13.531%
Expected shots11.57
On Target Over 3.562%
On Target Over 4.544%
On Target Over 5.529%
Expected on target4.39

Shots per Game

New York City FC — total shots (home)14.0
Chicago Fire — total shots (away)12.7

Shots on Target

New York City FC — on target (home)4.6
Chicago Fire — on target (away)5.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

New York City FC

Inside the box7.74
Outside the box4.38

Chicago Fire

Inside the box8.65
Outside the box5.19

Player Shots New York City FC

A. Martínez
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target85%
+1.5 On Target52%
H. Wolf
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target15%
T. Gray
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target3%
K. Parks
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%
N. Fernández Mercau
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Chicago Fire

T. Barlow
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target8%
+1.5 On Target4%
H. Cuypers
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target39%
J. Bamba
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target18%
B. Gutiérrez
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target31%
J. Elliott
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

New York City FC xG (home)1.41
Chicago Fire xG (away)1.68

Average Possession

53.92% Possession 49.57%

Team Comparison New York City FC vs Chicago Fire

82.87% Pass accuracy 84.18%
496.26 Passes per match 463.38
-0.02 Goals prevented -0.06
11.79 Fouls committed 12
3.03 Goalkeeper saves 2.86
1.47 Offsides 1.71
17.55 Tackles per match 15.32

League average xG this season is 1.48 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

New York City FC vs Chicago Fire prediction analysis

Review New York City FC vs Chicago Fire with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Major League Soccer.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Major League Soccer
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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