Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: New York City FC vs Toronto FC

New York City FC vs Toronto FC prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Major League Soccer 2026-07-31 23:30
New York City FC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
47%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Toronto FC
Away

Prediction Summary

1
45%
X
26%
2
29%
Under 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

New York City FC (Home)

Goals scored / match1.56
Goals conceded / match1.17
Over 2.5 rate22%
BTTS rate50%

Toronto FC (Away)

Goals scored / match1.05
Goals conceded / match1.32
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

New York City FC
WLWWD
Toronto FC
DDWLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

78% +0.5 63%
50% +1.5 21%
22% +2.5 5%
6% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%
50% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Low.

New York City FC averages 1.56 goals scored at home, while Toronto FC averages 1.05 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
45%
Draw
26%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jul 2025 New York City FC 3 - 1 Toronto FC Home
Apr 2025 New York City FC(A) 1 - 0 Toronto FC Home
May 2024 New York City FC(A) 3 - 2 Toronto FC Home
Mar 2024 New York City FC 2 - 1 Toronto FC Home
Sep 2023 New York City FC 3 - 0 Toronto FC Home

In the last 5 meetings, New York City FC won 5, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

New York City FC — unbeaten run (home)1
New York City FC — scoring streak (home)0
Toronto FC — winless run (away)10
Toronto FC — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

New York City FC Win (1)45%
Draw (X)26%
Toronto FC Win (2)29%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

78% +0.5 63%
50% +1.5 21%
22% +2.5 5%
6% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

22% -0.5 37%
50% -1.5 79%
78% -2.5 95%
94% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 95%

New York City FC vs Toronto FC — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

New York City FC — scored (home)1.56
New York City FC — conceded (home)1.17
Toronto FC — scored (away)1.05
Toronto FC — conceded (away)1.32
Model expected combined goals2.55

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

New York City FC — BTTS matches (home)50%
Toronto FC — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)51.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

New York City FC (home)

Corners for6.3
Corners against5.0

Toronto FC (away)

Corners for4.0
Corners against5.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

New York City FC
8 5 11 7 3
Toronto FC
17 9 10 12 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

New York City FC (home)

For2.1

Toronto FC (away)

For2.1

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.573%
Under 19.527%
Over 22.558%
Under 22.542%
Over 25.542%
Under 25.558%
Expected total shots24.66

New York City FC

Shots Over 9.582%
Shots Over 11.568%
Shots Over 13.552%
Expected shots14.18
On Target Over 3.571%
On Target Over 4.555%
On Target Over 5.539%
Expected on target5.01

Toronto FC

Shots Over 9.556%
Shots Over 11.537%
Shots Over 13.522%
Expected shots10.48
On Target Over 3.549%
On Target Over 4.531%
On Target Over 5.518%
Expected on target3.66

Shots per Game

New York City FC — total shots (home)14.0
Toronto FC — total shots (away)9.1

Shots on Target

New York City FC — on target (home)4.6
Toronto FC — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

New York City FC

Inside the box7.74
Outside the box4.38

Toronto FC

Inside the box6.38
Outside the box3.56

Player Shots New York City FC

A. Martínez
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target85%
+1.5 On Target52%
H. Wolf
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target15%
T. Gray
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target3%
K. Parks
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%
N. Fernández Mercau
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Toronto FC

F. Bernardeschi
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target27%
D. Mihailović
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target18%
T. Corbeanu
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Insigne
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target8%
M. Longstaff
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target12%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

New York City FC xG (home)1.41
Toronto FC xG (away)0.95

Average Possession

53.92% Possession 45.91%

Team Comparison New York City FC vs Toronto FC

82.87% Pass accuracy 83.13%
496.26 Passes per match 407.47
-0.02 Goals prevented 0.01
11.79 Fouls committed 11.56
3.03 Goalkeeper saves 3.44
1.47 Offsides 1.45
17.55 Tackles per match 17.36

League average xG this season is 1.48 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

New York City FC vs Toronto FC prediction analysis

Review New York City FC vs Toronto FC with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Major League Soccer.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Major League Soccer
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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