Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte

New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Major League Soccer 2026-07-25 22:30
New York Red Bulls
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
62%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Charlotte
Away

Prediction Summary

1
52%
X
22%
2
26%
Over 2.5
62%
BTTS Yes
61%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

New York Red Bulls (Home)

Goals scored / match2.12
Goals conceded / match1.35
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate59%

Charlotte (Away)

Goals scored / match1.22
Goals conceded / match1.67
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate56%

Team Form last 5 matches

New York Red Bulls
LLLLW
Charlotte
DLDLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

88% +0.5 78%
65% +1.5 39%
18% +2.5 6%
18% +3.5 0%
12% +4.5 0%
59% BTTS 56%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 62%. Model confidence is Medium.

New York Red Bulls averages 2.12 goals scored at home, while Charlotte averages 1.22 goals scored away.

Model Strength
62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
52%
Draw
22%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
62%
BTTS Yes
61%

Head-to-Head last 5

Aug 2025 New York Red Bulls(A) 0 - 1 Charlotte Away
May 2025 New York Red Bulls 4 - 2 Charlotte Home
Aug 2024 New York Red Bulls(A) 1 - 1 Charlotte Draw
May 2024 New York Red Bulls 3 - 1 Charlotte Home
Oct 2023 New York Red Bulls 5 - 2 Charlotte Home

In the last 5 meetings, New York Red Bulls won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

New York Red Bulls — unbeaten run (home)0
New York Red Bulls — scoring streak (home)0
Charlotte — winless run (away)1
Charlotte — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5

1X2 Probability model

New York Red Bulls Win (1)52%
Draw (X)22%
Charlotte Win (2)26%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

88% +0.5 78%
65% +1.5 39%
18% +2.5 6%
18% +3.5 0%
12% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

12% -0.5 22%
35% -1.5 61%
82% -2.5 94%
82% -3.5 100%
88% -4.5 100%

New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

New York Red Bulls — scored (home)2.12
New York Red Bulls — conceded (home)1.35
Charlotte — scored (away)1.22
Charlotte — conceded (away)1.67
Model expected combined goals3.18

Both Teams To Score

Yes61%
No39%

Rate per Team

New York Red Bulls — BTTS matches (home)59%
Charlotte — BTTS matches (away)56%
Combined (simple average)57.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

New York Red Bulls (home)

Corners for4.2
Corners against3.8

Charlotte (away)

Corners for4.3
Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

New York Red Bulls
10 10 13 5 14
Charlotte
16 15 8 5 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.597%
Under 1.53%
Over 2.586%
Under 2.514%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6

Yellow Cards per Team

New York Red Bulls (home)

For2.4

Charlotte (away)

For2.1

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.572%
Under 19.528%
Over 22.557%
Under 22.543%
Over 25.542%
Under 25.558%
Expected total shots24.49

New York Red Bulls

Shots Over 9.582%
Shots Over 11.569%
Shots Over 13.553%
Expected shots14.30
On Target Over 3.574%
On Target Over 4.558%
On Target Over 5.542%
Expected on target5.23

Charlotte

Shots Over 9.553%
Shots Over 11.534%
Shots Over 13.520%
Expected shots10.18
On Target Over 3.551%
On Target Over 4.533%
On Target Over 5.519%
Expected on target3.78

Shots per Game

New York Red Bulls — total shots (home)12.8
Charlotte — total shots (away)9.8

Shots on Target

New York Red Bulls — on target (home)5.1
Charlotte — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

New York Red Bulls

Inside the box7.18
Outside the box4.38

Charlotte

Inside the box7.54
Outside the box3.03

Player Shots New York Red Bulls

C. Harper
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target17%
E. Choupo-Moting
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target36%
D. Gjengaar
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target10%
N. Eile
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target7%
S. Ngoma
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target10%
+1.5 On Target5%

Player Shots Charlotte

Pep Biel
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target23%
P. Agyemang
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target31%
W. Zaha
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Abada
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target9%
I. Toklomati Giorno
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

New York Red Bulls xG (home)1.31
Charlotte xG (away)1.46

Average Possession

51.56% Possession 47.97%

Team Comparison New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte

82.46% Pass accuracy 84.21%
475.41 Passes per match 450.92
0.06 Goals prevented 0.1
12.32 Fouls committed 11.14
3.18 Goalkeeper saves 3.97
2.12 Offsides 1.44
16.8 Tackles per match 12.78

League average xG this season is 1.48 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte prediction analysis

Review New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Major League Soccer.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Major League Soccer
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top