Prediction Analysis: Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier League
2026-01-04
15:00
Newcastle
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
51%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Crystal Palace
Away
Prediction Summary
1
38%
X
26%
2
36%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Newcastle (Home)
Goals scored / match1.89
Goals conceded / match1.58
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate79%
Crystal Palace (Away)
Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Newcastle
LWDWL
Crystal Palace
LDLDL
Goals Comparison rate per team
95%
+0.5
74%
74%
+1.5
32%
16%
+2.5
11%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
79%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 51%. Model confidence is Medium.
Newcastle averages 1.89 goals scored at home, while Crystal Palace averages 1.16 goals scored away.
Model Strength
55%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
38%
Draw
26%
Away Win
36%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Newcastle(A)
1 - 2
Crystal Palace
Away
Jan 2026
Newcastle
2 - 0
Crystal Palace
Home
Apr 2025
Newcastle
5 - 0
Crystal Palace
Home
Nov 2024
Newcastle(A)
1 - 1
Crystal Palace
Draw
Apr 2024
Newcastle(A)
0 - 2
Crystal Palace
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Newcastle won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Newcastle — unbeaten run (home)2
Newcastle — scoring streak (home)7
Crystal Palace — winless run (away)4
Crystal Palace — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Newcastle Win (1)38%
Draw (X)26%
Crystal Palace Win (2)36%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
95%
+0.5
74%
74%
+1.5
32%
16%
+2.5
11%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
5%
-0.5
26%
26%
-1.5
68%
84%
-2.5
89%
95%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Newcastle — scored (home)1.89
Newcastle — conceded (home)1.58
Crystal Palace — scored (away)1.16
Crystal Palace — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.72
Both Teams To Score
Yes55%
No45%
Rate per Team
Newcastle — BTTS matches (home)79%
Crystal Palace — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)66%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.576%
Under 7.524%
Over 8.569%
Under 8.531%
Over 9.561%
Under 9.539%
Over 10.553%
Under 10.547%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.90
Per-Team Corners own matches
Newcastle (home)
Corners for6.7
Corners against4.9
Crystal Palace (away)
Corners for4.0
Corners against6.1
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Newcastle
9
12
3
10
12
Crystal Palace
8
15
13
13
7
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2
Yellow Cards per Team
Newcastle (home)
For1.6
Crystal Palace (away)
For2.8
Shots per Game
Newcastle — total shots (home)14.3
Crystal Palace — total shots (away)9.9
Shots on Target
Newcastle — on target (home)5.5
Crystal Palace — on target (away)3.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Newcastle
Inside the box8.29
Outside the box4.66
Crystal Palace
Inside the box8.5
Outside the box3.13
Player Shots Newcastle
Bruno Guimarães
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Gordon
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target23%
H. Barnes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target11%
W. Osula
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
Joelinton
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target11%
Player Shots Crystal Palace
J. Mateta
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target28%
I. Sarr
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target14%
J. Strand Larsen
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target14%
E. Nketiah
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
D. Muñoz
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target7%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Newcastle xG (home)1.5
Crystal Palace xG (away)1.53
Average Possession
52.61%
Possession
45.92%
Team Comparison Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
82.11%
Pass accuracy
77.55%
449.63
Passes per match
392.63
0.04
Goals prevented
0.28
9.82
Fouls committed
10.47
3
Goalkeeper saves
2.87
1.48
Offsides
1.92
14.47
Tackles per match
18.55
League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace prediction analysis
Review Newcastle vs Crystal Palace with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights