Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Newcastle vs Fulham

Newcastle vs Fulham prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premier League 2025-10-25 14:00
Newcastle
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
55%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Fulham
Away

Prediction Summary

1
58%
X
22%
2
20%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Newcastle (Home)

Goals scored / match1.89
Goals conceded / match1.58
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate79%

Fulham (Away)

Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match1.63
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Newcastle
LWDWL
Fulham
WDLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

95% +0.5 58%
74% +1.5 21%
16% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
79% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 55%. Model confidence is Medium.

Newcastle averages 1.89 goals scored at home, while Fulham averages 0.89 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
58%
Draw
22%
Away Win
20%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
54%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Newcastle(A) 0 - 2 Fulham Away
Dec 2025 Newcastle 2 - 1 Fulham Home
Oct 2025 Newcastle 2 - 1 Fulham Home
Feb 2025 Newcastle 1 - 2 Fulham Away
Sep 2024 Newcastle(A) 1 - 3 Fulham Away

In the last 5 meetings, Newcastle won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Newcastle — unbeaten run (home)2
Newcastle — scoring streak (home)7
Fulham — winless run (away)5
Fulham — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Newcastle Win (1)58%
Draw (X)22%
Fulham Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

95% +0.5 58%
74% +1.5 21%
16% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

5% -0.5 42%
26% -1.5 79%
84% -2.5 89%
95% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Newcastle vs Fulham — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Newcastle — scored (home)1.89
Newcastle — conceded (home)1.58
Fulham — scored (away)0.89
Fulham — conceded (away)1.63
Model expected combined goals2.88

Both Teams To Score

Yes54%
No46%

Rate per Team

Newcastle — BTTS matches (home)79%
Fulham — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)66%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.595%
Under 6.55%
Over 7.582%
Under 7.518%
Over 8.577%
Under 8.523%
Over 9.561%
Under 9.539%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Newcastle (home)

Corners for6.7
Corners against4.9

Fulham (away)

Corners for4.4
Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Newcastle
9 12 3 10 12
Fulham
7 7 13 9 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Newcastle (home)

For1.6

Fulham (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Newcastle — total shots (home)14.3
Fulham — total shots (away)11.3

Shots on Target

Newcastle — on target (home)5.5
Fulham — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Newcastle

Inside the box8.29
Outside the box4.66

Fulham

Inside the box8.55
Outside the box4.16

Player Shots Newcastle

Bruno Guimarães
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Gordon
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target23%
H. Barnes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target11%
W. Osula
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
Joelinton
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Fulham

H. Wilson
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
R. Jiménez
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Iwobi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target3%
Kevin
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target4%
Joshua King
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Newcastle xG (home)1.5
Fulham xG (away)1.27

Average Possession

52.61% Possession 51.71%

Team Comparison Newcastle vs Fulham

82.11% Pass accuracy 83.58%
449.63 Passes per match 473.95
0.04 Goals prevented -0.2
9.82 Fouls committed 10.89
3 Goalkeeper saves 2.65
1.48 Offsides 1.74
14.47 Tackles per match 17.13

League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Newcastle vs Fulham prediction analysis

Review Newcastle vs Fulham with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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