Prediction Analysis: Newcastle vs Liverpool
Newcastle vs Liverpool prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier League
2026-08-23
15:30
Newcastle
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
66%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Liverpool
Away
Prediction Summary
1
44%
X
23%
2
33%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Yes
66%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Newcastle (Home)
Goals scored / match1.89
Goals conceded / match1.58
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate79%
Liverpool (Away)
Goals scored / match1.53
Goals conceded / match1.74
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate68%
Team Form last 5 matches
Newcastle
LWDWL
Liverpool
DLDLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
95%
+0.5
89%
74%
+1.5
53%
16%
+2.5
11%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
79%
BTTS
68%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 66%. Model confidence is Medium.
Newcastle averages 1.89 goals scored at home, while Liverpool averages 1.53 goals scored away.
Model Strength
66%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
44%
Draw
23%
Away Win
33%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Yes
66%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jan 2026
Newcastle(A)
1 - 4
Liverpool
Away
Aug 2025
Newcastle
2 - 3
Liverpool
Away
Mar 2025
Newcastle(A)
2 - 1
Liverpool
Home
Feb 2025
Newcastle(A)
0 - 2
Liverpool
Away
Dec 2024
Newcastle
3 - 3
Liverpool
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Newcastle won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Newcastle — unbeaten run (home)2
Newcastle — scoring streak (home)7
Liverpool — winless run (away)2
Liverpool — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Newcastle Win (1)44%
Draw (X)23%
Liverpool Win (2)33%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
95%
+0.5
89%
74%
+1.5
53%
16%
+2.5
11%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
5%
-0.5
11%
26%
-1.5
47%
84%
-2.5
89%
95%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Newcastle vs Liverpool — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Newcastle — scored (home)1.89
Newcastle — conceded (home)1.58
Liverpool — scored (away)1.53
Liverpool — conceded (away)1.74
Model expected combined goals3.37
Both Teams To Score
Yes66%
No34%
Rate per Team
Newcastle — BTTS matches (home)79%
Liverpool — BTTS matches (away)68%
Combined (simple average)73.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Newcastle (home)
Corners for6.7
Corners against4.9
Liverpool (away)
Corners for5.9
Corners against4.0
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Newcastle
9
12
3
10
12
Liverpool
13
5
7
13
16
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4
Yellow Cards per Team
Newcastle (home)
For1.6
Liverpool (away)
For1.8
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.577%
Under 19.523%
Over 22.565%
Under 22.535%
Over 25.552%
Under 25.548%
Expected total shots26.83
Newcastle
Shots Over 9.576%
Shots Over 11.562%
Shots Over 13.547%
Expected shots13.61
On Target Over 3.569%
On Target Over 4.552%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.91
Liverpool
Shots Over 9.574%
Shots Over 11.559%
Shots Over 13.544%
Expected shots13.22
On Target Over 3.564%
On Target Over 4.547%
On Target Over 5.532%
Expected on target4.57
Shots per Game
Newcastle — total shots (home)14.3
Liverpool — total shots (away)13.7
Shots on Target
Newcastle — on target (home)5.5
Liverpool — on target (away)4.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Newcastle
Inside the box8.29
Outside the box4.66
Liverpool
Inside the box10.08
Outside the box5.39
Player Shots Newcastle
Bruno Guimarães
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Gordon
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target23%
H. Barnes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target11%
W. Osula
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
Joelinton
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target11%
Player Shots Liverpool
Mohamed Salah
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target19%
H. Ekitike
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target18%
D. Szoboszlai
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target8%
C. Gakpo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target11%
F. Wirtz
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target6%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Newcastle xG (home)1.5
Liverpool xG (away)1.6
Average Possession
52.61%
Possession
59.21%
Team Comparison Newcastle vs Liverpool
82.11%
Pass accuracy
85.37%
449.63
Passes per match
530.95
0.04
Goals prevented
-0.26
9.82
Fouls committed
9.95
3
Goalkeeper saves
2.7
1.48
Offsides
2.11
14.47
Tackles per match
12.97
League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Newcastle vs Liverpool prediction analysis
Review Newcastle vs Liverpool with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights