Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Norwich vs Oxford United

Norwich vs Oxford United prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-11-25 19:45
Norwich
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
47%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Oxford United
Away

Prediction Summary

1
27%
X
26%
2
47%
Under 2.5
53%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Norwich (Home)

Goals scored / match1.17
Goals conceded / match1.22
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate57%

Oxford United (Away)

Goals scored / match0.91
Goals conceded / match1.39
Over 2.5 rate9%
BTTS rate57%

Team Form last 5 matches

Norwich
LDWWL
Oxford United
LWLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 57%
39% +1.5 26%
4% +2.5 9%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
57% BTTS 57%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Low.

Norwich averages 1.17 goals scored at home, while Oxford United averages 0.91 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
27%
Draw
26%
Away Win
47%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Yes
50%

Head-to-Head last 4

Feb 2026 Norwich(A) 3 - 0 Oxford United Home
Nov 2025 Norwich 1 - 1 Oxford United Draw
Mar 2025 Norwich 1 - 1 Oxford United Draw
Aug 2024 Norwich(A) 0 - 2 Oxford United Away

In the last 4 meetings, Norwich won 1, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Norwich — unbeaten run (home)2
Norwich — scoring streak (home)2
Oxford United — winless run (away)4
Oxford United — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Norwich Win (1)27%
Draw (X)26%
Oxford United Win (2)47%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 57%
39% +1.5 26%
4% +2.5 9%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 43%
61% -1.5 74%
96% -2.5 91%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Norwich vs Oxford United — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Norwich — scored (home)1.17
Norwich — conceded (home)1.22
Oxford United — scored (away)0.91
Oxford United — conceded (away)1.39
Model expected combined goals2.54

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%
No50%

Rate per Team

Norwich — BTTS matches (home)57%
Oxford United — BTTS matches (away)57%
Combined (simple average)57%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.596%
Under 5.54%
Over 6.594%
Under 6.56%
Over 7.585%
Under 7.515%
Over 8.581%
Under 8.519%
Over 9.574%
Under 9.526%
Over 10.563%
Under 10.537%
Expected total corners (blended average)11.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Norwich (home)

Corners for5.7
Corners against4.2

Oxford United (away)

Corners for3.4
Corners against8.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Norwich
14 12 7 7 8
Oxford United
15 10 14 8 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Norwich (home)

For1.6

Oxford United (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Norwich — total shots (home)13.7
Oxford United — total shots (away)9.8

Shots on Target

Norwich — on target (home)4.4
Oxford United — on target (away)2.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Norwich

Inside the box8
Outside the box4.57

Oxford United

Inside the box6.48
Outside the box5.46

Player Shots Norwich

M. Touré
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target36%
A. Ben Slimane
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target27%
J. Sargent
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target22%
J. Makama
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target14%
P. Maghoma
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target21%

Player Shots Oxford United

C. Brannagan
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target11%
W. Lankshear
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target7%
S. Mills
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%
B. De Keersmaecker
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target8%
M. Peart-Harris
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Norwich xG (home)1.32
Oxford United xG (away)1.13

Average Possession

53.63% Possession 39.89%

Team Comparison Norwich vs Oxford United

79.24% Pass accuracy 69.57%
435.28 Passes per match 304.85
0.13 Goals prevented 0.06
10.2 Fouls committed 10.98
2.61 Goalkeeper saves 3
1.93 Offsides 1.76
16.72 Tackles per match 17.04

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Norwich vs Oxford United prediction analysis

Review Norwich vs Oxford United with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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