Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Norwich vs Watford

Norwich vs Watford prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Championship 2025-12-29 19:45
Norwich
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
49%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Watford
Away

Prediction Summary

1
37%
X
26%
2
37%
Under 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Norwich (Home)

Goals scored / match1.17
Goals conceded / match1.22
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate57%

Watford (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.65
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Norwich
LDWWL
Watford
LLLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 70%
39% +1.5 26%
4% +2.5 4%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
57% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Low.

Norwich averages 1.17 goals scored at home, while Watford averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
37%
Draw
26%
Away Win
37%
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS Yes
54%

Head-to-Head last 5

Dec 2025 Norwich 0 - 1 Watford Away
Dec 2025 Norwich(A) 2 - 3 Watford Away
Aug 2025 Norwich(A) 2 - 1 Watford Home
Feb 2025 Norwich(A) 1 - 0 Watford Home
Sep 2024 Norwich 4 - 1 Watford Home

In the last 5 meetings, Norwich won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Norwich — unbeaten run (home)2
Norwich — scoring streak (home)2
Watford — winless run (away)6
Watford — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Norwich Win (1)37%
Draw (X)26%
Watford Win (2)37%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 70%
39% +1.5 26%
4% +2.5 4%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 30%
61% -1.5 74%
96% -2.5 96%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Norwich vs Watford — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Norwich — scored (home)1.17
Norwich — conceded (home)1.22
Watford — scored (away)1
Watford — conceded (away)1.65
Model expected combined goals2.64

Both Teams To Score

Yes54%
No46%

Rate per Team

Norwich — BTTS matches (home)57%
Watford — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)61%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.594%
Under 5.56%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.568%
Under 8.532%
Over 9.559%
Under 9.541%
Over 10.552%
Under 10.548%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Norwich (home)

Corners for5.7
Corners against4.2

Watford (away)

Corners for4.4
Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Norwich
14 12 7 7 8
Watford
15 13 7 9 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Norwich (home)

For1.6

Watford (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Norwich — total shots (home)13.7
Watford — total shots (away)12.0

Shots on Target

Norwich — on target (home)4.4
Watford — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Norwich

Inside the box8
Outside the box4.57

Watford

Inside the box8
Outside the box5.87

Player Shots Norwich

M. Touré
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target36%
A. Ben Slimane
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target27%
J. Sargent
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target22%
J. Makama
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target14%
P. Maghoma
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target21%

Player Shots Watford

L. Kjerrumgaard
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target19%
O. Maamma
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target12%
R. Vata
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target25%
N. Irankunda
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target13%
Vivaldo Semedo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Norwich xG (home)1.32
Watford xG (away)1.22

Average Possession

53.63% Possession 51.24%

Team Comparison Norwich vs Watford

79.24% Pass accuracy 79.85%
435.28 Passes per match 414.59
0.13 Goals prevented -0.06
10.2 Fouls committed 11.07
2.61 Goalkeeper saves 2.72
1.93 Offsides 1.36
16.72 Tackles per match 15.11

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Norwich vs Watford prediction analysis

Review Norwich vs Watford with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top