Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Nottingham Forest vs Brighton

Nottingham Forest vs Brighton prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premier League 2025-11-30 14:05
Nottingham Forest
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
58%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Brighton
Away

Prediction Summary

1
38%
X
24%
2
38%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Nottingham Forest (Home)

Goals scored / match1.05
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate47%

Brighton (Away)

Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Nottingham Forest
DLDWW
Brighton
LLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

53% +0.5 74%
26% +1.5 37%
21% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.

Nottingham Forest averages 1.05 goals scored at home, while Brighton averages 1.16 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
38%
Draw
24%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Nottingham Forest(A) 1 - 2 Brighton Away
Nov 2025 Nottingham Forest 0 - 2 Brighton Away
Mar 2025 Nottingham Forest(A) 0 - 0 Brighton Draw
Feb 2025 Nottingham Forest 7 - 0 Brighton Home
Sep 2024 Nottingham Forest(A) 2 - 2 Brighton Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Nottingham Forest won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Nottingham Forest — unbeaten run (home)5
Nottingham Forest — scoring streak (home)4
Brighton — winless run (away)3
Brighton — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Nottingham Forest Win (1)38%
Draw (X)24%
Brighton Win (2)38%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

53% +0.5 74%
26% +1.5 37%
21% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

47% -0.5 26%
74% -1.5 63%
79% -2.5 95%
95% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Nottingham Forest vs Brighton — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Nottingham Forest — scored (home)1.05
Nottingham Forest — conceded (home)1.21
Brighton — scored (away)1.16
Brighton — conceded (away)1.37
Model expected combined goals3

Both Teams To Score

Yes60%
No40%

Rate per Team

Nottingham Forest — BTTS matches (home)47%
Brighton — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%
Under 4.58%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.589%
Under 6.511%
Over 7.584%
Under 7.516%
Over 8.577%
Under 8.523%
Over 9.566%
Under 9.534%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Nottingham Forest (home)

Corners for6.0
Corners against3.9

Brighton (away)

Corners for4.8
Corners against5.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Nottingham Forest
9 11 3 13 9
Brighton
11 12 8 15 3

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Nottingham Forest (home)

For1.3

Brighton (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Nottingham Forest — total shots (home)15.0
Brighton — total shots (away)12.3

Shots on Target

Nottingham Forest — on target (home)4.0
Brighton — on target (away)4.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Nottingham Forest

Inside the box7.79
Outside the box4.79

Brighton

Inside the box8.66
Outside the box4.37

Player Shots Nottingham Forest

M. Gibbs-White
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target16%
C. Wood
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target13%
Igor Jesus
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target11%
N. Williams
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target14%
T. Awoniyi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Brighton

D. Welbeck
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Hinshelwood
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target11%
K. Mitoma
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target8%
P. Groß
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target5%
D. Gómez
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Nottingham Forest xG (home)1.21
Brighton xG (away)1.51

Average Possession

46.76% Possession 54.11%

Team Comparison Nottingham Forest vs Brighton

81% Pass accuracy 83.5%
408.34 Passes per match 476.47
-0.01 Goals prevented 0.04
10.89 Fouls committed 11.92
2.87 Goalkeeper saves 2.79
1.69 Offsides 1.68
16.95 Tackles per match 17.76

League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Nottingham Forest vs Brighton prediction analysis

Review Nottingham Forest vs Brighton with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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