Prediction Analysis: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier League
2025-05-25
15:00
Nottingham Forest
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
48%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Chelsea
Away
Prediction Summary
1
42%
X
26%
2
32%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Nottingham Forest (Home)
Goals scored / match1.37
Goals conceded / match0.84
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate37%
Chelsea (Away)
Goals scored / match1.53
Goals conceded / match1.32
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Nottingham Forest
LWDDL
Chelsea
WWLWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
74%
+0.5
68%
26%
+1.5
32%
16%
+2.5
21%
5%
+3.5
16%
5%
+4.5
11%
37%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 48%. Model confidence is Low.
Nottingham Forest averages 1.37 goals scored at home, while Chelsea averages 1.53 goals scored away.
Model Strength
53%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
42%
Draw
26%
Away Win
32%
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Nottingham Forest(A)
3 - 1
Chelsea
Home
Oct 2025
Nottingham Forest
0 - 3
Chelsea
Away
May 2025
Nottingham Forest
0 - 1
Chelsea
Away
Oct 2024
Nottingham Forest(A)
1 - 1
Chelsea
Draw
May 2024
Nottingham Forest
2 - 3
Chelsea
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Nottingham Forest won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Nottingham Forest — unbeaten run (home)0
Nottingham Forest — scoring streak (home)0
Chelsea — winless run (away)0
Chelsea — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Nottingham Forest Win (1)42%
Draw (X)26%
Chelsea Win (2)32%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
74%
+0.5
68%
26%
+1.5
32%
16%
+2.5
21%
5%
+3.5
16%
5%
+4.5
11%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
26%
-0.5
32%
74%
-1.5
68%
84%
-2.5
79%
95%
-3.5
84%
95%
-4.5
89%
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Nottingham Forest — scored (home)1.37
Nottingham Forest — conceded (home)0.84
Chelsea — scored (away)1.53
Chelsea — conceded (away)1.32
Model expected combined goals2.61
Both Teams To Score
Yes53%
No47%
Rate per Team
Nottingham Forest — BTTS matches (home)37%
Chelsea — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)45%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.590%
Under 6.510%
Over 7.584%
Under 7.516%
Over 8.577%
Under 8.523%
Over 9.556%
Under 9.544%
Over 10.542%
Under 10.558%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00
Per-Team Corners own matches
Nottingham Forest (home)
Corners for4.2
Corners against6.0
Chelsea (away)
Corners for5.8
Corners against3.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Nottingham Forest
9
11
8
15
11
Chelsea
12
9
10
9
11
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5
Yellow Cards per Team
Nottingham Forest (home)
For1.6
Chelsea (away)
For2.7
Shots per Game
Nottingham Forest — total shots (home)12.3
Chelsea — total shots (away)13.5
Shots on Target
Nottingham Forest — on target (home)4.4
Chelsea — on target (away)4.8
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Nottingham Forest
Inside the box7.74
Outside the box4.45
Chelsea
Inside the box10.37
Outside the box5.29
Player Shots Nottingham Forest
C. Hudson-Odoi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target16%
A. Elanga
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target16%
C. Wood
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target19%
R. Sosa
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target5%
M. Gibbs-White
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target12%
Player Shots Chelsea
N. Madueke
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
C. Palmer
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target30%
N. Jackson
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target33%
T. Chalobah
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target15%
+1.5 On Target8%
Pedro Neto
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target14%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Nottingham Forest xG (home)1.22
Chelsea xG (away)1.82
Average Possession
40.89%
Possession
57.18%
Team Comparison Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
77.79%
Pass accuracy
86.29%
340.53
Passes per match
520.5
0.01
Goals prevented
0.11
10.55
Fouls committed
11.47
3.16
Goalkeeper saves
3.03
2.39
Offsides
1.76
18.37
Tackles per match
15.39
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea prediction analysis
Review Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights