Prediction Analysis: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier League
2025-10-18
11:30
Nottingham Forest
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
68%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-2
Chelsea
Away
Prediction Summary
1
23%
X
20%
2
56%
Over 2.5
68%
BTTS Yes
65%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Nottingham Forest (Home)
Goals scored / match1.05
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate47%
Chelsea (Away)
Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match1.42
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate68%
Team Form last 5 matches
Nottingham Forest
DLDWW
Chelsea
LWDLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
53%
+0.5
84%
26%
+1.5
42%
21%
+2.5
26%
5%
+3.5
11%
0%
+4.5
5%
47%
BTTS
68%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 68%. Model confidence is Medium.
Nottingham Forest averages 1.05 goals scored at home, while Chelsea averages 1.68 goals scored away.
Model Strength
68%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
23%
Draw
20%
Away Win
56%
Over 2.5
68%
BTTS Yes
65%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Nottingham Forest(A)
3 - 1
Chelsea
Home
Oct 2025
Nottingham Forest
0 - 3
Chelsea
Away
May 2025
Nottingham Forest
0 - 1
Chelsea
Away
Oct 2024
Nottingham Forest(A)
1 - 1
Chelsea
Draw
May 2024
Nottingham Forest
2 - 3
Chelsea
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Nottingham Forest won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Nottingham Forest — unbeaten run (home)5
Nottingham Forest — scoring streak (home)4
Chelsea — winless run (away)4
Chelsea — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Nottingham Forest Win (1)23%
Draw (X)20%
Chelsea Win (2)56%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
53%
+0.5
84%
26%
+1.5
42%
21%
+2.5
26%
5%
+3.5
11%
0%
+4.5
5%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
47%
-0.5
16%
74%
-1.5
58%
79%
-2.5
74%
95%
-3.5
89%
100%
-4.5
95%
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Nottingham Forest — scored (home)1.05
Nottingham Forest — conceded (home)1.21
Chelsea — scored (away)1.68
Chelsea — conceded (away)1.42
Model expected combined goals3.5
Both Teams To Score
Yes65%
No35%
Rate per Team
Nottingham Forest — BTTS matches (home)47%
Chelsea — BTTS matches (away)68%
Combined (simple average)57.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.589%
Under 6.511%
Over 7.579%
Under 7.521%
Over 8.574%
Under 8.526%
Over 9.563%
Under 9.537%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.80
Per-Team Corners own matches
Nottingham Forest (home)
Corners for6.0
Corners against3.9
Chelsea (away)
Corners for5.1
Corners against4.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Nottingham Forest
9
11
3
13
9
Chelsea
11
11
7
7
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9
Yellow Cards per Team
Nottingham Forest (home)
For1.3
Chelsea (away)
For2.8
Shots per Game
Nottingham Forest — total shots (home)15.0
Chelsea — total shots (away)11.6
Shots on Target
Nottingham Forest — on target (home)4.0
Chelsea — on target (away)4.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Nottingham Forest
Inside the box7.79
Outside the box4.79
Chelsea
Inside the box8.87
Outside the box4.53
Player Shots Nottingham Forest
M. Gibbs-White
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target16%
C. Wood
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target13%
Igor Jesus
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target11%
N. Williams
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target14%
T. Awoniyi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target12%
Player Shots Chelsea
C. Palmer
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target27%
E. Fernández
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target17%
João Pedro
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target20%
Tyrique George
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
L. Delap
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target4%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Nottingham Forest xG (home)1.21
Chelsea xG (away)1.75
Average Possession
46.76%
Possession
57.74%
Team Comparison Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
81%
Pass accuracy
86.66%
408.34
Passes per match
540.21
-0.01
Goals prevented
0.06
10.89
Fouls committed
11.05
2.87
Goalkeeper saves
2.79
1.69
Offsides
1.76
16.95
Tackles per match
15.61
League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea prediction analysis
Review Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights