Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Nottingham Forest vs Leeds

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premier League 2026-08-22 14:00
Nottingham Forest
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
52%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Leeds
Away

Prediction Summary

1
44%
X
26%
2
30%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Nottingham Forest (Home)

Goals scored / match1.05
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate47%

Leeds (Away)

Goals scored / match1.05
Goals conceded / match1.84
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Nottingham Forest
DLDWW
Leeds
LWDWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

53% +0.5 63%
26% +1.5 32%
21% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Low.

Nottingham Forest averages 1.05 goals scored at home, while Leeds averages 1.05 goals scored away.

Model Strength
52%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
44%
Draw
26%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS Yes
52%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Nottingham Forest(A) 1 - 3 Leeds Away
Nov 2025 Nottingham Forest 3 - 1 Leeds Home
Apr 2023 Nottingham Forest(A) 1 - 2 Leeds Away
Feb 2023 Nottingham Forest 1 - 0 Leeds Home
Feb 2020 Nottingham Forest 2 - 0 Leeds Home

In the last 5 meetings, Nottingham Forest won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Nottingham Forest — unbeaten run (home)5
Nottingham Forest — scoring streak (home)4
Leeds — winless run (away)3
Leeds — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Nottingham Forest Win (1)44%
Draw (X)26%
Leeds Win (2)30%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

53% +0.5 63%
26% +1.5 32%
21% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

47% -0.5 37%
74% -1.5 68%
79% -2.5 89%
95% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Nottingham Forest — scored (home)1.05
Nottingham Forest — conceded (home)1.21
Leeds — scored (away)1.05
Leeds — conceded (away)1.84
Model expected combined goals2.58

Both Teams To Score

Yes52%
No48%

Rate per Team

Nottingham Forest — BTTS matches (home)47%
Leeds — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)55%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Nottingham Forest (home)

Corners for6.0
Corners against3.9

Leeds (away)

Corners for3.3
Corners against5.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Nottingham Forest
9 11 3 13 9
Leeds
13 5 16 15 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Nottingham Forest (home)

For1.3

Leeds (away)

For1.8

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.574%
Under 19.526%
Over 22.561%
Under 22.539%
Over 25.547%
Under 25.553%
Expected total shots25.79

Nottingham Forest

Shots Over 9.579%
Shots Over 11.565%
Shots Over 13.550%
Expected shots14.07
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.548%
On Target Over 5.533%
Expected on target4.66

Leeds

Shots Over 9.565%
Shots Over 11.548%
Shots Over 13.532%
Expected shots11.71
On Target Over 3.553%
On Target Over 4.535%
On Target Over 5.522%
Expected on target3.91

Shots per Game

Nottingham Forest — total shots (home)15.0
Leeds — total shots (away)10.8

Shots on Target

Nottingham Forest — on target (home)4.0
Leeds — on target (away)3.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Nottingham Forest

Inside the box7.79
Outside the box4.79

Leeds

Inside the box8.58
Outside the box4

Player Shots Nottingham Forest

M. Gibbs-White
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target16%
C. Wood
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target13%
Igor Jesus
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target11%
N. Williams
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target14%
T. Awoniyi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Leeds

D. Calvert-Lewin
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target20%
N. Okafor
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target7%
L. Nmecha
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target6%
A. Stach
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target0%
B. Aaronson
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Nottingham Forest xG (home)1.21
Leeds xG (away)1.43

Average Possession

46.76% Possession 45.74%

Team Comparison Nottingham Forest vs Leeds

81% Pass accuracy 78.32%
408.34 Passes per match 395.66
-0.01 Goals prevented 0.01
10.89 Fouls committed 10.47
2.87 Goalkeeper saves 2.66
1.69 Offsides 1.62
16.95 Tackles per match 17.39

League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds prediction analysis

Review Nottingham Forest vs Leeds with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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