Prediction Analysis: Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland
Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier League
2025-09-27
16:30
Nottingham Forest
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
41%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Sunderland
Away
Prediction Summary
1
41%
X
28%
2
31%
Under 2.5
59%
BTTS No
53%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Nottingham Forest (Home)
Goals scored / match1.05
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate47%
Sunderland (Away)
Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
Nottingham Forest
DLDWW
Sunderland
WWDDL
Goals Comparison rate per team
53%
+0.5
58%
26%
+1.5
21%
21%
+2.5
11%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
47%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.
Nottingham Forest averages 1.05 goals scored at home, while Sunderland averages 0.89 goals scored away.
Model Strength
59%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
41%
Draw
28%
Away Win
31%
Over 2.5
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
Head-to-Head last 2
Apr 2026
Nottingham Forest(A)
5 - 0
Sunderland
Home
Sep 2025
Nottingham Forest
0 - 1
Sunderland
Away
In the last 2 meetings, Nottingham Forest won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Nottingham Forest — unbeaten run (home)5
Nottingham Forest — scoring streak (home)4
Sunderland — winless run (away)0
Sunderland — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Nottingham Forest Win (1)41%
Draw (X)28%
Sunderland Win (2)31%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
53%
+0.5
58%
26%
+1.5
21%
21%
+2.5
11%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
47%
-0.5
42%
74%
-1.5
79%
79%
-2.5
89%
95%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Nottingham Forest — scored (home)1.05
Nottingham Forest — conceded (home)1.21
Sunderland — scored (away)0.89
Sunderland — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.32
Both Teams To Score
Yes47%
No53%
Rate per Team
Nottingham Forest — BTTS matches (home)47%
Sunderland — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)47%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.576%
Under 7.524%
Over 8.569%
Under 8.531%
Over 9.555%
Under 9.545%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.40
Per-Team Corners own matches
Nottingham Forest (home)
Corners for6.0
Corners against3.9
Sunderland (away)
Corners for3.4
Corners against5.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Nottingham Forest
9
11
3
13
9
Sunderland
9
9
13
5
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4
Yellow Cards per Team
Nottingham Forest (home)
For1.3
Sunderland (away)
For2.3
Shots per Game
Nottingham Forest — total shots (home)15.0
Sunderland — total shots (away)8.8
Shots on Target
Nottingham Forest — on target (home)4.0
Sunderland — on target (away)3.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Nottingham Forest
Inside the box7.79
Outside the box4.79
Sunderland
Inside the box7.39
Outside the box3.03
Player Shots Nottingham Forest
M. Gibbs-White
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target16%
C. Wood
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target13%
Igor Jesus
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target11%
N. Williams
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target14%
T. Awoniyi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target12%
Player Shots Sunderland
B. Brobbey
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target10%
W. Isidor
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target6%
B. Traoré
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
H. Diarra
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target5%
N. Angulo
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Nottingham Forest xG (home)1.21
Sunderland xG (away)1.02
Average Possession
46.76%
Possession
44.84%
Team Comparison Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland
81%
Pass accuracy
78.45%
408.34
Passes per match
375.05
-0.01
Goals prevented
-0.16
10.89
Fouls committed
10.71
2.87
Goalkeeper saves
3.13
1.69
Offsides
1.57
16.95
Tackles per match
15.39
League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland prediction analysis
Review Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights