Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: O'Higgins vs D. La Serena

O'Higgins vs D. La Serena prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera División 2025-03-09 21:00
O'Higgins
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
D. La Serena
Away

Prediction Summary

1
55%
X
25%
2
20%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS No
53%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

O'Higgins (Home)

Goals scored / match1.4
Goals conceded / match0.73
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate40%

D. La Serena (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.87
Over 2.5 rate7%
BTTS rate80%

Team Form last 5 matches

O'Higgins
WWLWW
D. La Serena
LLLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

80% +0.5 80%
33% +1.5 13%
20% +2.5 7%
7% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
40% BTTS 80%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Medium.

O'Higgins averages 1.4 goals scored at home, while D. La Serena averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
55%
Draw
25%
Away Win
20%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
47%

Head-to-Head last 2

Aug 2025 O'Higgins(A) 3 - 3 D. La Serena Draw
Mar 2025 O'Higgins 1 - 1 D. La Serena Draw

In the last 2 meetings, O'Higgins won 0, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

O'Higgins — unbeaten run (home)1
O'Higgins — scoring streak (home)1
D. La Serena — winless run (away)2
D. La Serena — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

O'Higgins Win (1)55%
Draw (X)25%
D. La Serena Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

80% +0.5 80%
33% +1.5 13%
20% +2.5 7%
7% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

20% -0.5 20%
67% -1.5 87%
80% -2.5 93%
93% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

O'Higgins vs D. La Serena — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

O'Higgins — scored (home)1.4
O'Higgins — conceded (home)0.73
D. La Serena — scored (away)1
D. La Serena — conceded (away)1.87
Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes47%
No53%

Rate per Team

O'Higgins — BTTS matches (home)40%
D. La Serena — BTTS matches (away)80%
Combined (simple average)60%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.583%
Under 4.517%
Over 5.580%
Under 5.520%
Over 6.577%
Under 6.523%
Over 7.567%
Under 7.533%
Over 8.567%
Under 8.533%
Over 9.567%
Under 9.533%
Over 10.560%
Under 10.540%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

O'Higgins (home)

Corners for5.9
Corners against4.7

D. La Serena (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

O'Higgins
10 3 13 15 4
D. La Serena
3 13 11 12 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.597%
Under 1.53%
Over 2.594%
Under 2.56%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.3

Yellow Cards per Team

O'Higgins (home)

For2.6

D. La Serena (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

O'Higgins — total shots (home)15.8
D. La Serena — total shots (away)11.0

Shots on Target

O'Higgins — on target (home)4.4
D. La Serena — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

O'Higgins

Inside the box8.17
Outside the box7.13

D. La Serena

Inside the box6.23
Outside the box6.83

Player Shots O'Higgins

B. Rabello
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target30%
Francisco González
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target21%
J. Montecinos
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target23%
M. Romero
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target23%
M. Sarrafiore
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target21%

Player Shots D. La Serena

J. Vargas
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target32%
Á. Henríquez
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target20%
G. Jara
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target7%
L. Ovando
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
E. Moreira
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

O'Higgins xG (home)1.44
D. La Serena xG (away)1.19

Average Possession

53.43% Possession 45.97%

Team Comparison O'Higgins vs D. La Serena

74.5% Pass accuracy 76.53%
380.67 Passes per match 341.27
0 Goals prevented 0
12.07 Fouls committed 11.8
2.4 Goalkeeper saves 3.07
1.21 Offsides 1.55
16.13 Tackles per match 14.53

League average xG this season is 1.45 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

O'Higgins vs D. La Serena prediction analysis

Review O'Higgins vs D. La Serena with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera División.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera División
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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