Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Qarabag

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Qarabag prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Europa League 2025-01-30 20:00
Olympiakos Piraeus
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
32%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Qarabag
Away

Prediction Summary

1
62%
X
26%
2
12%
Under 2.5
68%
BTTS No
69%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Olympiakos Piraeus (Home)

Goals scored / match1.8
Goals conceded / match0.4
Over 2.5 rate40%
BTTS rate40%

Qarabag (Away)

Goals scored / match0.5
Goals conceded / match2
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate25%

Team Form last 5 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus
WLWWD
Qarabag
LLLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

80% +0.5 25%
60% +1.5 25%
40% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
40% BTTS 25%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 32%. Model confidence is Medium.

Olympiakos Piraeus averages 1.8 goals scored at home, while Qarabag averages 0.5 goals scored away.

Model Strength
69%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
62%
Draw
26%
Away Win
12%
Over 2.5
32%
BTTS Yes
31%

Head-to-Head last 3

Jan 2025 Olympiakos Piraeus 3 - 0 Qarabag Home
Oct 2022 Olympiakos Piraeus(A) 0 - 0 Qarabag Draw
Oct 2022 Olympiakos Piraeus 0 - 3 Qarabag Away

In the last 3 meetings, Olympiakos Piraeus won 1, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Olympiakos Piraeus — unbeaten run (home)5
Olympiakos Piraeus — scoring streak (home)2
Qarabag — winless run (away)2
Qarabag — clean sheets (away, last 4)0 of 4

1X2 Probability model

Olympiakos Piraeus Win (1)62%
Draw (X)26%
Qarabag Win (2)12%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

80% +0.5 25%
60% +1.5 25%
40% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

20% -0.5 75%
40% -1.5 75%
60% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Qarabag — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Olympiakos Piraeus — scored (home)1.8
Olympiakos Piraeus — conceded (home)0.4
Qarabag — scored (away)0.5
Qarabag — conceded (away)2
Model expected combined goals2

Both Teams To Score

Yes31%
No69%

Rate per Team

Olympiakos Piraeus — BTTS matches (home)40%
Qarabag — BTTS matches (away)25%
Combined (simple average)32.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.588%
Under 6.512%
Over 7.588%
Under 7.512%
Over 8.578%
Under 8.522%
Over 9.558%
Under 9.542%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Olympiakos Piraeus (home)

Corners for6.8
Corners against2.6

Qarabag (away)

Corners for4.8
Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Olympiakos Piraeus
9 4 10 15 11
Qarabag
13 8 6 11 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Olympiakos Piraeus (home)

For2.0

Qarabag (away)

For3.0

Shots per Game

Olympiakos Piraeus — total shots (home)18.2
Qarabag — total shots (away)10.3

Shots on Target

Olympiakos Piraeus — on target (home)6.0
Qarabag — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Olympiakos Piraeus

Inside the box10.7
Outside the box4.3

Qarabag

Inside the box6.13
Outside the box4

Player Shots Olympiakos Piraeus

A. El Kaabi
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target88%
+1.5 On Target38%
Gelson Martins
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%
S. Hezze
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target11%
R. Yaremchuk
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
Costinha
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Qarabag

Juninho
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target33%
A. Zoubir
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
T. Bayramov
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target0%
E. Cəfərquliyev
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target0%
Y. Benzia
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Olympiakos Piraeus xG (home)1.69
Qarabag xG (away)1.14

Average Possession

49.4% Possession 55.25%

Team Comparison Olympiakos Piraeus vs Qarabag

75.6% Pass accuracy 82.5%
403.9 Passes per match 475.25
0.07 Goals prevented 0.07
12.8 Fouls committed 9.88
2.9 Goalkeeper saves 4.13
3.7 Offsides 1.88
22.4 Tackles per match 23.25

League average xG this season is 1.47 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Qarabag prediction analysis

Review Olympiakos Piraeus vs Qarabag with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Europa League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Europa League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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