Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Once Caldas vs Chico

Once Caldas vs Chico prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-09-26 23:00
Once Caldas
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
44%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Chico
Away

Prediction Summary

1
60%
X
24%
2
16%
Under 2.5
56%
BTTS No
57%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Once Caldas (Home)

Goals scored / match1.48
Goals conceded / match1.13
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate52%

Chico (Away)

Goals scored / match0.6
Goals conceded / match2
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Once Caldas
DWDWL
Chico
LLLWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

87% +0.5 45%
35% +1.5 15%
17% +2.5 0%
4% +3.5 0%
4% +4.5 0%
52% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Once Caldas averages 1.48 goals scored at home, while Chico averages 0.6 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
60%
Draw
24%
Away Win
16%
Over 2.5
44%
BTTS Yes
43%

Head-to-Head last 2

Sep 2025 Once Caldas 5 - 2 Chico Home
Apr 2025 Once Caldas(A) 0 - 0 Chico Draw

In the last 2 meetings, Once Caldas won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Once Caldas — unbeaten run (home)2
Once Caldas — scoring streak (home)6
Chico — winless run (away)1
Chico — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Once Caldas Win (1)60%
Draw (X)24%
Chico Win (2)16%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

87% +0.5 45%
35% +1.5 15%
17% +2.5 0%
4% +3.5 0%
4% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

13% -0.5 55%
65% -1.5 85%
83% -2.5 100%
96% -3.5 100%
96% -4.5 100%

Once Caldas vs Chico — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Once Caldas — scored (home)1.48
Once Caldas — conceded (home)1.13
Chico — scored (away)0.6
Chico — conceded (away)2
Model expected combined goals2.43

Both Teams To Score

Yes43%
No57%

Rate per Team

Once Caldas — BTTS matches (home)52%
Chico — BTTS matches (away)35%
Combined (simple average)43.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.596%
Under 4.54%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.564%
Under 7.536%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Once Caldas (home)

Corners for5.4
Corners against4.7

Chico (away)

Corners for2.3
Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Once Caldas
7 14 14 5 6
Chico
5 4 7 10 2

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.586%
Under 2.514%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Once Caldas (home)

For3.2

Chico (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Once Caldas — total shots (home)14.6
Chico — total shots (away)8.5

Shots on Target

Once Caldas — on target (home)5.3
Chico — on target (away)2.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Once Caldas

Inside the box6.02
Outside the box6.42

Chico

Inside the box4.88
Outside the box5.28

Player Shots Once Caldas

H. Dorrego
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
D. Moreno
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target23%
J. Zapata
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target11%
M. Barrios
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%
M. García
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target19%

Player Shots Chico

Hassan Vergara
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
J. Molina
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target27%
E. Banguero
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target15%
E. Arango
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Bocanegra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Once Caldas xG (home)0.94
Chico xG (away)1.02

Average Possession

49.73% Possession 47.6%

Team Comparison Once Caldas vs Chico

81.02% Pass accuracy 77.73%
358.62 Passes per match 328.68
0 Goals prevented 0
11.36 Fouls committed 11.03
3.64 Goalkeeper saves 3.05
2.43 Offsides 1.68
12.47 Tackles per match 10.13

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Once Caldas vs Chico prediction analysis

Review Once Caldas vs Chico with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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