Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Once Caldas vs Santa Fe

Once Caldas vs Santa Fe prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-06-05 23:10
Once Caldas
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
49%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Santa Fe
Away

Prediction Summary

1
48%
X
25%
2
27%
Under 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Once Caldas (Home)

Goals scored / match1.48
Goals conceded / match1.13
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate52%

Santa Fe (Away)

Goals scored / match1.22
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate52%

Team Form last 5 matches

Once Caldas
DWDWL
Santa Fe
DWLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

87% +0.5 70%
35% +1.5 33%
17% +2.5 4%
4% +3.5 4%
4% +4.5 4%
52% BTTS 52%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Low.

Once Caldas averages 1.48 goals scored at home, while Santa Fe averages 1.22 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
48%
Draw
25%
Away Win
27%
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS Yes
53%

Head-to-Head last 4

Sep 2025 Once Caldas(A) 2 - 1 Santa Fe Home
Jun 2025 Once Caldas(A) 0 - 1 Santa Fe Away
Jun 2025 Once Caldas 1 - 2 Santa Fe Away
Mar 2025 Once Caldas 0 - 1 Santa Fe Away

In the last 4 meetings, Once Caldas won 1, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Once Caldas — unbeaten run (home)2
Once Caldas — scoring streak (home)6
Santa Fe — winless run (away)0
Santa Fe — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Once Caldas Win (1)48%
Draw (X)25%
Santa Fe Win (2)27%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

87% +0.5 70%
35% +1.5 33%
17% +2.5 4%
4% +3.5 4%
4% +4.5 4%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

13% -0.5 30%
65% -1.5 67%
83% -2.5 96%
96% -3.5 96%
96% -4.5 96%

Once Caldas vs Santa Fe — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Once Caldas — scored (home)1.48
Once Caldas — conceded (home)1.13
Santa Fe — scored (away)1.22
Santa Fe — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.65

Both Teams To Score

Yes53%
No47%

Rate per Team

Once Caldas — BTTS matches (home)52%
Santa Fe — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)52%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.596%
Under 4.54%
Over 5.590%
Under 5.510%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.576%
Under 7.524%
Over 8.561%
Under 8.539%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.541%
Under 10.559%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Once Caldas (home)

Corners for5.4
Corners against4.7

Santa Fe (away)

Corners for4.1
Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Once Caldas
7 14 14 5 6
Santa Fe
6 8 8 12 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.592%
Under 2.58%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Once Caldas (home)

For3.2

Santa Fe (away)

For3.4

Shots per Game

Once Caldas — total shots (home)14.6
Santa Fe — total shots (away)10.2

Shots on Target

Once Caldas — on target (home)5.3
Santa Fe — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Once Caldas

Inside the box6.02
Outside the box6.42

Santa Fe

Inside the box7.04
Outside the box5.44

Player Shots Once Caldas

H. Dorrego
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
D. Moreno
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target23%
J. Zapata
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target11%
M. Barrios
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%
M. García
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target19%

Player Shots Santa Fe

H. Rodallega
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target37%
H. Mosquera
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target22%
A. Zapata
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%
Y. Perlaza
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
O. Fernández
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target5%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Once Caldas xG (home)0.94
Santa Fe xG (away)1.08

Average Possession

49.73% Possession 48.19%

Team Comparison Once Caldas vs Santa Fe

81.02% Pass accuracy 77.09%
358.62 Passes per match 334.04
0 Goals prevented 0
11.36 Fouls committed 11.52
3.64 Goalkeeper saves 3.46
2.43 Offsides 1.38
12.47 Tackles per match 10.54

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Once Caldas vs Santa Fe prediction analysis

Review Once Caldas vs Santa Fe with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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