Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Osasuna vs Celta Vigo

Osasuna vs Celta Vigo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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La Liga 2025-10-26 17:30
Osasuna
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
37%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Celta Vigo
Away

Prediction Summary

1
53%
X
27%
2
20%
Under 2.5
63%
BTTS No
60%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Osasuna (Home)

Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match1.26
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate74%

Celta Vigo (Away)

Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Osasuna
LLLLL
Celta Vigo
WDLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 84%
53% +1.5 32%
11% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
74% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 37%. Model confidence is Medium.

Osasuna averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while Celta Vigo averages 1.26 goals scored away.

Model Strength
63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
53%
Draw
27%
Away Win
20%
Over 2.5
37%
BTTS Yes
40%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Osasuna(A) 2 - 1 Celta Vigo Home
Oct 2025 Osasuna 2 - 3 Celta Vigo Away
Feb 2025 Osasuna(A) 0 - 1 Celta Vigo Away
Sep 2024 Osasuna 3 - 2 Celta Vigo Home
Feb 2024 Osasuna 0 - 3 Celta Vigo Away

In the last 5 meetings, Osasuna won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Osasuna — unbeaten run (home)0
Osasuna — scoring streak (home)19
Celta Vigo — winless run (away)1
Celta Vigo — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Osasuna Win (1)53%
Draw (X)27%
Celta Vigo Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 84%
53% +1.5 32%
11% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 16%
47% -1.5 68%
89% -2.5 89%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Osasuna vs Celta Vigo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Osasuna — scored (home)1.63
Osasuna — conceded (home)1.26
Celta Vigo — scored (away)1.26
Celta Vigo — conceded (away)1.05
Model expected combined goals2.17

Both Teams To Score

Yes40%
No60%

Rate per Team

Osasuna — BTTS matches (home)74%
Celta Vigo — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)68.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.561%
Under 7.539%
Over 8.542%
Under 8.558%
Over 9.526%
Under 9.574%
Over 10.516%
Under 10.584%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Osasuna (home)

Corners for4.5
Corners against3.8

Celta Vigo (away)

Corners for3.1
Corners against5.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Osasuna
10 16 12 11 6
Celta Vigo
6 10 8 5 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.590%
Under 2.510%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Osasuna (home)

For2.3

Celta Vigo (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Osasuna — total shots (home)14.8
Celta Vigo — total shots (away)8.6

Shots on Target

Osasuna — on target (home)5.3
Celta Vigo — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Osasuna

Inside the box8.29
Outside the box3.55

Celta Vigo

Inside the box6.55
Outside the box3.5

Player Shots Osasuna

A. Budimir
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target38%
Víctor Muñoz
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target29%
Raúl García
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target11%
Rubén García
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target3%
Lucas Torró
Shots on Target/Game0.2
+0.5 On Target18%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Celta Vigo

Ferran Jutglà
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target27%
Borja Iglesias
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target20%
Bryan Zaragoza
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target16%
Pablo Durán
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%
W. Swedberg
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Osasuna xG (home)1.21
Celta Vigo xG (away)1.32

Average Possession

46.84% Possession 50.42%

Team Comparison Osasuna vs Celta Vigo

78.97% Pass accuracy 85.47%
386.37 Passes per match 497.66
0.07 Goals prevented 0.06
13.47 Fouls committed 11.68
3.3 Goalkeeper saves 2.97
1.5 Offsides 2.17
14.5 Tackles per match 14.26

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Osasuna vs Celta Vigo prediction analysis

Review Osasuna vs Celta Vigo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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