Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Oxford United vs Leicester

Oxford United vs Leicester prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-09-13 11:30
Oxford United
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
44%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Leicester
Away

Prediction Summary

1
38%
X
27%
2
34%
Under 2.5
56%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Oxford United (Home)

Goals scored / match1.04
Goals conceded / match1.17
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate48%

Leicester (Away)

Goals scored / match1.17
Goals conceded / match1.48
Over 2.5 rate9%
BTTS rate74%

Team Form last 5 matches

Oxford United
LWLLW
Leicester
WDDLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

61% +0.5 83%
35% +1.5 26%
4% +2.5 9%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
48% BTTS 74%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Oxford United averages 1.04 goals scored at home, while Leicester averages 1.17 goals scored away.

Model Strength
56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
38%
Draw
27%
Away Win
34%
Over 2.5
44%
BTTS Yes
50%

Head-to-Head last 2

Jan 2026 Oxford United(A) 2 - 1 Leicester Home
Sep 2025 Oxford United 2 - 2 Leicester Draw

In the last 2 meetings, Oxford United won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Oxford United — unbeaten run (home)1
Oxford United — scoring streak (home)1
Leicester — winless run (away)0
Leicester — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Oxford United Win (1)38%
Draw (X)27%
Leicester Win (2)34%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

61% +0.5 83%
35% +1.5 26%
4% +2.5 9%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

39% -0.5 17%
65% -1.5 74%
96% -2.5 91%
96% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Oxford United vs Leicester — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Oxford United — scored (home)1.04
Oxford United — conceded (home)1.17
Leicester — scored (away)1.17
Leicester — conceded (away)1.48
Model expected combined goals2.44

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%
No50%

Rate per Team

Oxford United — BTTS matches (home)48%
Leicester — BTTS matches (away)74%
Combined (simple average)61%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.594%
Under 5.56%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.583%
Under 7.517%
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.555%
Under 9.545%
Over 10.548%
Under 10.552%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Oxford United (home)

Corners for4.6
Corners against5.8

Leicester (away)

Corners for4.4
Corners against6.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Oxford United
15 10 14 8 15
Leicester
14 12 17 14 20

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.596%
Under 0.54%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Oxford United (home)

For1.4

Leicester (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Oxford United — total shots (home)14.1
Leicester — total shots (away)11.9

Shots on Target

Oxford United — on target (home)4.2
Leicester — on target (away)4.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Oxford United

Inside the box6.48
Outside the box5.46

Leicester

Inside the box7.57
Outside the box5.28

Player Shots Oxford United

C. Brannagan
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target11%
W. Lankshear
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target7%
S. Mills
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%
B. De Keersmaecker
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target8%
M. Peart-Harris
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Leicester

A. Ramsey
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target22%
A. Fatawu
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. James
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target12%
P. Daka
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target10%
D. Mukasa
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Oxford United xG (home)1.13
Leicester xG (away)1.18

Average Possession

39.89% Possession 51.87%

Team Comparison Oxford United vs Leicester

69.57% Pass accuracy 80.17%
304.85 Passes per match 427.22
0.06 Goals prevented -0.08
10.98 Fouls committed 10.76
3 Goalkeeper saves 2.69
1.76 Offsides 1.55
17.04 Tackles per match 15.85

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Oxford United vs Leicester prediction analysis

Review Oxford United vs Leicester with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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