Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Oxford United vs Swansea

Oxford United vs Swansea prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-12-29 19:45
Oxford United
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
43%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Swansea
Away

Prediction Summary

1
40%
X
28%
2
33%
Under 2.5
57%
BTTS No
51%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Oxford United (Home)

Goals scored / match1.04
Goals conceded / match1.17
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate48%

Swansea (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.39
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate48%

Team Form last 5 matches

Oxford United
LWLLW
Swansea
WDWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

61% +0.5 65%
35% +1.5 30%
4% +2.5 4%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
48% BTTS 48%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.

Oxford United averages 1.04 goals scored at home, while Swansea averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
40%
Draw
28%
Away Win
33%
Over 2.5
43%
BTTS Yes
49%

Head-to-Head last 5

Dec 2025 Oxford United 0 - 1 Swansea Away
Dec 2025 Oxford United(A) 0 - 2 Swansea Away
May 2025 Oxford United(A) 3 - 3 Swansea Draw
Nov 2024 Oxford United 1 - 2 Swansea Away
Aug 2022 Oxford United 2 - 2 Swansea Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Oxford United won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Oxford United — unbeaten run (home)1
Oxford United — scoring streak (home)1
Swansea — winless run (away)1
Swansea — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Oxford United Win (1)40%
Draw (X)28%
Swansea Win (2)33%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

61% +0.5 65%
35% +1.5 30%
4% +2.5 4%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

39% -0.5 35%
65% -1.5 70%
96% -2.5 96%
96% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Oxford United vs Swansea — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Oxford United — scored (home)1.04
Oxford United — conceded (home)1.17
Swansea — scored (away)1
Swansea — conceded (away)1.39
Model expected combined goals2.41

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%
No51%

Rate per Team

Oxford United — BTTS matches (home)48%
Swansea — BTTS matches (away)48%
Combined (simple average)48%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.596%
Under 5.54%
Over 6.583%
Under 6.517%
Over 7.581%
Under 7.519%
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Oxford United (home)

Corners for4.6
Corners against5.8

Swansea (away)

Corners for4.0
Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Oxford United
15 10 14 8 15
Swansea
14 16 9 7 14

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.596%
Under 0.54%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Oxford United (home)

For1.4

Swansea (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Oxford United — total shots (home)14.1
Swansea — total shots (away)11.0

Shots on Target

Oxford United — on target (home)4.2
Swansea — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Oxford United

Inside the box6.48
Outside the box5.46

Swansea

Inside the box7.11
Outside the box5.2

Player Shots Oxford United

C. Brannagan
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target11%
W. Lankshear
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target7%
S. Mills
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%
B. De Keersmaecker
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target8%
M. Peart-Harris
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Swansea

Z. Vipotnik
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target23%
A. Idah
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target12%
L. Cullen
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target8%
L. Walta
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target20%
Ronald
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Oxford United xG (home)1.13
Swansea xG (away)1.12

Average Possession

39.89% Possession 54.57%

Team Comparison Oxford United vs Swansea

69.57% Pass accuracy 79.43%
304.85 Passes per match 461.63
0.06 Goals prevented -0.11
10.98 Fouls committed 9.7
3 Goalkeeper saves 3.2
1.76 Offsides 2.11
17.04 Tackles per match 15.37

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Oxford United vs Swansea prediction analysis

Review Oxford United vs Swansea with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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