Prediction Analysis: Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG
Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-07-26
22:30
Palmeiras
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
39%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Atletico-MG
Away
Prediction Summary
1
61%
X
25%
2
14%
Under 2.5
61%
BTTS No
63%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Palmeiras (Home)
Goals scored / match1.84
Goals conceded / match0.58
Over 2.5 rate37%
BTTS rate37%
Atletico-MG (Away)
Goals scored / match0.68
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate32%
Team Form last 5 matches
Palmeiras
WWWLD
Atletico-MG
DWLLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
68%
+0.5
42%
53%
+1.5
16%
37%
+2.5
5%
21%
+3.5
5%
5%
+4.5
0%
37%
BTTS
32%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 39%. Model confidence is Medium.
Palmeiras averages 1.84 goals scored at home, while Atletico-MG averages 0.68 goals scored away.
Model Strength
63%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
61%
Draw
25%
Away Win
14%
Over 2.5
39%
BTTS Yes
37%
Head-to-Head last 5
Dec 2025
Palmeiras(A)
3 - 0
Atletico-MG
Home
Jul 2025
Palmeiras
3 - 2
Atletico-MG
Home
Sep 2024
Palmeiras
2 - 1
Atletico-MG
Home
Jun 2024
Palmeiras(A)
4 - 0
Atletico-MG
Home
Oct 2023
Palmeiras
0 - 2
Atletico-MG
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Palmeiras won 4, drew 0 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Palmeiras — unbeaten run (home)14
Palmeiras — scoring streak (home)0
Atletico-MG — winless run (away)2
Atletico-MG — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Palmeiras Win (1)61%
Draw (X)25%
Atletico-MG Win (2)14%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
68%
+0.5
42%
53%
+1.5
16%
37%
+2.5
5%
21%
+3.5
5%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
32%
-0.5
58%
47%
-1.5
84%
63%
-2.5
95%
79%
-3.5
95%
95%
-4.5
100%
Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Palmeiras — scored (home)1.84
Palmeiras — conceded (home)0.58
Atletico-MG — scored (away)0.68
Atletico-MG — conceded (away)1.37
Model expected combined goals2.24
Both Teams To Score
Yes37%
No63%
Rate per Team
Palmeiras — BTTS matches (home)37%
Atletico-MG — BTTS matches (away)32%
Combined (simple average)34.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Palmeiras (home)
Corners for5.9
Corners against2.9
Atletico-MG (away)
Corners for4.8
Corners against5.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Palmeiras
9
13
8
16
14
Atletico-MG
10
6
11
16
7
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8
Yellow Cards per Team
Palmeiras (home)
For1.8
Atletico-MG (away)
For2.4
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.580%
Under 19.520%
Over 22.567%
Under 22.533%
Over 25.552%
Under 25.548%
Expected total shots26.73
Palmeiras
Shots Over 9.588%
Shots Over 11.577%
Shots Over 13.563%
Expected shots15.79
On Target Over 3.575%
On Target Over 4.560%
On Target Over 5.544%
Expected on target5.38
Atletico-MG
Shots Over 9.560%
Shots Over 11.541%
Shots Over 13.526%
Expected shots10.94
On Target Over 3.548%
On Target Over 4.530%
On Target Over 5.517%
Expected on target3.63
Shots per Game
Palmeiras — total shots (home)17.3
Atletico-MG — total shots (away)12.5
Shots on Target
Palmeiras — on target (home)6.2
Atletico-MG — on target (away)3.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Palmeiras
Inside the box8.79
Outside the box6.61
Atletico-MG
Inside the box8.32
Outside the box6.76
Player Shots Palmeiras
Vitor Roque
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target30%
J. López
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target30%
F. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target14%
Luighi Hanri
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target18%
Andreas Pereira
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%
Player Shots Atletico-MG
Rony
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target29%
Hulk
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target27%
T. Cuello
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
João Marcelo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
Guilherme Arana
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target12%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Palmeiras xG (home)1.49
Atletico-MG xG (away)1.09
Average Possession
52.34%
Possession
54.16%
Team Comparison Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG
82.21%
Pass accuracy
83.87%
406.61
Passes per match
451.13
0.13
Goals prevented
0.03
14.61
Fouls committed
13.24
2.95
Goalkeeper saves
2.92
1.79
Offsides
1.83
16.89
Tackles per match
15.45
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG prediction analysis
Review Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights