Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Palmeiras vs Internacional

Palmeiras vs Internacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2026-08-09 19:00
Palmeiras
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Palmeiras
Probability
65%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Internacional
Away

Prediction Summary

1
65%
X
21%
2
13%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS No
57%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Palmeiras (Home)

Goals scored / match1.84
Goals conceded / match0.58
Over 2.5 rate37%
BTTS rate37%

Internacional (Away)

Goals scored / match0.85
Goals conceded / match1.95
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate60%

Team Form last 5 matches

Palmeiras
WWWLD
Internacional
LLWLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

68% +0.5 60%
53% +1.5 20%
37% +2.5 5%
21% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%
37% BTTS 60%

Model Insight

The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 65%. Model confidence is Medium.

Palmeiras averages 1.84 goals scored at home, while Internacional averages 0.85 goals scored away.

Model Strength
65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
65%
Draw
21%
Away Win
13%
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS Yes
43%

Head-to-Head last 5

Sep 2025 Palmeiras 4 - 1 Internacional Home
Apr 2025 Palmeiras(A) 1 - 0 Internacional Home
Aug 2024 Palmeiras(A) 1 - 1 Internacional Draw
Apr 2024 Palmeiras 0 - 1 Internacional Away
Nov 2023 Palmeiras 3 - 0 Internacional Home

In the last 5 meetings, Palmeiras won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Palmeiras — unbeaten run (home)14
Palmeiras — scoring streak (home)0
Internacional — winless run (away)3
Internacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Palmeiras Win (1)65%
Draw (X)21%
Internacional Win (2)13%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

68% +0.5 60%
53% +1.5 20%
37% +2.5 5%
21% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

32% -0.5 40%
47% -1.5 80%
63% -2.5 95%
79% -3.5 100%
95% -4.5 100%

Palmeiras vs Internacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Palmeiras — scored (home)1.84
Palmeiras — conceded (home)0.58
Internacional — scored (away)0.85
Internacional — conceded (away)1.95
Model expected combined goals2.61

Both Teams To Score

Yes43%
No57%

Rate per Team

Palmeiras — BTTS matches (home)37%
Internacional — BTTS matches (away)60%
Combined (simple average)48.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Palmeiras (home)

Corners for5.9
Corners against2.9

Internacional (away)

Corners for4.2
Corners against5.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Palmeiras
9 13 8 16 14
Internacional
7 13 6 12 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Palmeiras (home)

For1.8

Internacional (away)

For2.3

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.578%
Under 19.522%
Over 22.565%
Under 22.535%
Over 25.550%
Under 25.550%
Expected total shots26.22

Palmeiras

Shots Over 9.588%
Shots Over 11.577%
Shots Over 13.563%
Expected shots15.81
On Target Over 3.576%
On Target Over 4.561%
On Target Over 5.546%
Expected on target5.49

Internacional

Shots Over 9.555%
Shots Over 11.536%
Shots Over 13.522%
Expected shots10.42
On Target Over 3.546%
On Target Over 4.528%
On Target Over 5.516%
Expected on target3.50

Shots per Game

Palmeiras — total shots (home)17.3
Internacional — total shots (away)10.4

Shots on Target

Palmeiras — on target (home)6.2
Internacional — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Palmeiras

Inside the box8.79
Outside the box6.61

Internacional

Inside the box8.08
Outside the box5.5

Player Shots Palmeiras

Vitor Roque
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target30%
J. López
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target30%
F. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target14%
Luighi Hanri
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target18%
Andreas Pereira
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Internacional

J. Carbonero
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target16%
Alan Patrick
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target13%
Ricardo Mathias
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target23%
Gustavo Prado
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target17%
Tabata
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Palmeiras xG (home)1.49
Internacional xG (away)1.4

Average Possession

52.34% Possession 51.08%

Team Comparison Palmeiras vs Internacional

82.21% Pass accuracy 82.63%
406.61 Passes per match 429.03
0.13 Goals prevented -0.13
14.61 Fouls committed 14.89
2.95 Goalkeeper saves 2.61
1.79 Offsides 1.78
16.89 Tackles per match 18

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Palmeiras vs Internacional prediction and preview

Preview Palmeiras vs Internacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.

1X2 Over/Under 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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