What markets are included in the Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo

Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-05-11 20:30

Palmeiras

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

19%

Confidence

High

Score

0-0

Sao Paulo

Away

Prediction Summary

37%

27%

Under 2.5

81%

BTTS No

72%

Confidence

High

Market Evidence

Palmeiras (Home)

Goals scored / match1.84

Goals conceded / match0.58

Over 2.5 rate37%

BTTS rate37%

Sao Paulo (Away)

Goals scored / match0.84

Goals conceded / match1.58

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate37%

Team Form last 5 matches

Palmeiras

WWLDD

Sao Paulo

LWLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

68% +0.5 53%

53% +1.5 32%

37% +2.5 0%

21% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

37% BTTS 37%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 19%. Model confidence is High.

Palmeiras averages 1.84 goals scored at home, while Sao Paulo averages 0.84 goals scored away.

Model Strength

81%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

37%

Draw

37%

Away Win

27%

Over 2.5

19%

BTTS Yes

28%

Head-to-Head last 5

Oct 2025 Palmeiras(A) 3 - 2 Sao Paulo Home

May 2025 Palmeiras 1 - 0 Sao Paulo Home

Aug 2024 Palmeiras 2 - 1 Sao Paulo Home

Apr 2024 Palmeiras(A) 0 - 0 Sao Paulo Draw

Oct 2023 Palmeiras 5 - 0 Sao Paulo Home

In the last 5 meetings, Palmeiras won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Palmeiras — unbeaten run (home)14

Palmeiras — scoring streak (home)0

Sao Paulo — winless run (away)3

Sao Paulo — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Palmeiras Win (1)37%

Draw (X)37%

Sao Paulo Win (2)27%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

68% +0.5 53%

53% +1.5 32%

37% +2.5 0%

21% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

32% -0.5 47%

47% -1.5 68%

63% -2.5 100%

79% -3.5 100%

95% -4.5 100%

Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Palmeiras — scored (home)1.84

Palmeiras — conceded (home)0.58

Sao Paulo — scored (away)0.84

Sao Paulo — conceded (away)1.58

Model expected combined goals1.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes28%

No72%

Rate per Team

Palmeiras — BTTS matches (home)37%

Sao Paulo — BTTS matches (away)37%

Combined (simple average)37%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%

Under 4.58%

Over 5.587%

Under 5.513%

Over 6.579%

Under 6.521%

Over 7.574%

Under 7.526%

Over 8.563%

Under 8.537%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.540%

Under 10.560%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Palmeiras (home)

Corners for5.9

Corners against2.9

Sao Paulo (away)

Corners for4.5

Corners against6.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Palmeiras

9 13 8 16 14

Sao Paulo

9 11 7 13 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.5100%

Under 1.50%

Over 2.590%

Under 2.510%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Palmeiras (home)

For1.8

Sao Paulo (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Palmeiras — total shots (home)17.3

Sao Paulo — total shots (away)10.4

Shots on Target

Palmeiras — on target (home)6.2

Sao Paulo — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Palmeiras

Inside the box8.79

Outside the box6.61

Sao Paulo

Inside the box7.11

Outside the box4.74

Player Shots Palmeiras

Vitor Roque

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target70%

+1.5 On Target30%

J. López

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target73%

+1.5 On Target30%

F. Torres

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target14%

Luighi Hanri

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target18%

Andreas Pereira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Sao Paulo

Luciano

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target63%

+1.5 On Target19%

G. Tapia

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target15%

J. Dinenno

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target14%

Ferreira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target4%

André Silva

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Palmeiras xG (home)1.49

Sao Paulo xG (away)1.15

Average Possession

52.34% Possession 52.13%

Team Comparison Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo

82.21% Pass accuracy 83.71%

406.61 Passes per match 438.63

0.13 Goals prevented 0.21

14.61 Fouls committed 14.24

2.95 Goalkeeper saves 3.21

1.79 Offsides 1.47

16.89 Tackles per match 17.21

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo prediction analysis

Review Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights